Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Tech 33.5, Colorado 18.8 at Folsom Field in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Texas Tech wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.7 points and 52.2 combined points.
Texas Tech (No. 12) is 4-0, scoring 36.3 and allowing 18.5 points per game (+17.8 per game). Colorado is 2-2, scoring 21.5 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-3 per game).
Texas Tech's strong offense (17th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd); that mismatch is where most of Texas Tech's projected points come from. Expect Colorado to find it hard going: Texas Tech's strong defense (15th) outranks Colorado's below-average offense (93rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 37 and Colorado by 8 about 80% of the time.
Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Texas Tech 29, Colorado 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.3 points and the total by 16.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Tech / Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -14 → Texas Tech -13.5 | 50.25 → 50 | -587.5 / +420 |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -14.5 → Texas Tech -13.5 | 50.5 | -600 / +440 |
| Bovada | Texas Tech -13.5 | 50 → 49.5 | -575 / +400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -14.5 | 52.2 | 17% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -13.5 | 50.0 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -14 | 50.9 | 17% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado win probability
- model 17% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -14.7 · market Texas Tech -13.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Colorado view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 50 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Texas Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Tech 33.5, Colorado 18.8 | Texas Tech 83%right winner | 7.3 | 16.2 |
| New formula | Texas Tech 32.7, Colorado 19.0 | Texas Tech 82%right winner | 8.3 | 15.7 |
Final: Texas Tech 29, Colorado 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Tech vs Colorado: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas Tech | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.3#38 | 21.5#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.5#37 | 24.5#83 |
| Yards per play | 6.37#61 | 5.74#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#69 | 5.25#60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.0#51 | 179.0#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 246.3#52 | 228.5#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.0#24 | 125.5#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.0#118 | 239.5#107 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75#129 | 0.75#68 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#18 | 1.00#65 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#38 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#57 | 2.50#111 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#64 | +0.06#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#33 | -0.01#53 |
| Success rate | 51.4%#11 | 41.1%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#38 | 39.0%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#41 | 13.5%#62 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#53 | 12.5%#88 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#58 | 17.3%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#114 | 13.1%#79 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.96#18 | 2.88#132 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.71#5 | 3.28#30 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#75 | own 26#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#35 | own 33#124 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8#50 | 71.0#24 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#53 | +0.03#96 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#65 | +0.09#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#73 | -0.17#5 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#28 | +0.13#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2%#11 | 43.0%#84 |
| Passing success rate | 49.6%#28 | 39.0%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#71 | 12.1%#17 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.7%#12 | 34.5%#49 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#93 | 29.7%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#24 | 36.4%#105 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#78 | 40.7%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#37 | 46.4%#125 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#37 | 40.5%#12 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Tech schedule · Colorado schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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