Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 29.2, Iowa State 23.8 at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Utah wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 52.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Utah (No. 15) is 3-0, scoring 47.3 and allowing 8 points per game (+39.3 per game). Iowa State is 2-1, scoring 35.3 and allowing 11 points per game (+24.3 per game).
Utah's strong offense (18th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) meets Iowa State's strong defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah puts up. Expect Iowa State to find it hard going: Utah's strong defense (18th) outranks Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah by 28 and Iowa State by 17 about 80% of the time.
Iowa State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Utah is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Utah 31, Iowa State 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.6 points and the total by 4.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah / Iowa State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -10 → Utah -7.5 | 49.25 → 46.75 | -342.5 / +270 |
| DraftKings | Utah -11.5 → Utah -7.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -325 / +260 |
| Bovada | Utah -8.5 → Utah -7.5 | 49 → 47 | -360 / +280 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -5.5 | 52.9 | 36% |
| Market consensus | Utah -7.5 | 46.8 | 26% |
| Blended projection | Utah -7 | 48.2 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa State win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -5.4 · market Utah -7.5 · difference +2.1 pts (Iowa State view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 46.75 · difference +6.1
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Iowa State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah 29.2, Iowa State 23.8 | Utah 64%right winner | 8.6 | 4.9 |
| New formula | Utah 28.6, Iowa State 24.2 | Utah 62%right winner | 9.6 | 4.8 |
Final: Utah 31, Iowa State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah vs Iowa State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Utah | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 47.3#9 | 35.3#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 8.0#6 | 11.0#13 |
| Yards per play | 7.47#16 | 6.48#61 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.86#6 | 4.28#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 234.0#26 | 205.0#41 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.0#32 | 149.0#124 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 98.0#21 | 112.0#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 146.3#18 | 137.7#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#18 | 0.33#21 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#50 | 1.00#52 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#13 | 2.00#56 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#13 | 0.67#15 |
| Stat | Utah | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#36 | +0.07#79 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#59 | -0.13#13 |
| Success rate | 44.7%#52 | 41.0%#98 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3%#32 | 33.6%#16 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0%#49 | 14.8%#31 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#47 | 7.3%#2 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#54 | 15.0%#53 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#71 | 15.0%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.43#55 | 4.70#30 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51#44 | 2.60#5 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#16 | own 31#56 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#33 | own 29#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#37 | 54.7#133 |
| Stat | Utah | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#62 | +0.04#87 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.26#35 | +0.12#70 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#107 | -0.11#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#36 | -0.15#19 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.6%#45 | 40.0%#103 |
| Passing success rate | 57.7%#9 | 41.5%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#116 | 14.3%#36 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.9%#16 | 26.3%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.8%#51 | 16.9%#4 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 62.2%#6 | 37.5%#105 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1%#33 | 27.9%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.5%#80 | 68.2%#53 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.7%#56 | 65.4%#91 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah schedule · Iowa State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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