Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 37.3, Arkansas 24.5 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Utah wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.8 points and 61.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Arkansas is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 14 points per game (+17 per game). Utah (No. 20) is 1-0, scoring 66 and allowing 14 points per game (+52 per game).
Utah's strong defense (26th) should limit Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Utah's elite offense (13th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.7 points against an average defense) against Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas by 10 and Utah by 35 about 80% of the time.
Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah by about 10.7. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Arkansas 10, Utah 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.2 points and the total by 8.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas / Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -11.25 → Utah -13 | 55.75 → 55.5 | +377.5 / -512.5 |
| DraftKings | Utah -9.5 → Utah -13.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | +380 / -500 |
| Bovada | Utah -13 → Utah -12.5 | 57 → 55.5 | +375 / -525 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -13 | 61.7 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Utah -13 | 55.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Utah -13 | 56.2 | 81% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference 0 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -12.8 · market Utah -13 · difference -0.2 pts (Utah view)
- Total
- model 61.7 · market 55.5 · difference +6.2
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas 24.5, Utah 37.3 | Utah 80%right winner | 20.2 | 8.7 |
| New formula | Arkansas 18.1, Utah 41.7 | Utah 92%right winner | 9.4 | 6.8 |
Final: Arkansas 10, Utah 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas vs Utah: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9#23 | 41.3#4 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8#129 | 18.9#18 |
| Yards per play | 7.29#5 | 6.66#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52#127 | 5.69#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.1#17 | 264.1#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.2#31 | 216.6#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.9#122 | 196.4#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.3#101 | 187.3#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58#123 | 0.69#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58#121 | 1.08#68 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83#84 | 2.54#26 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33#107 | 1.08#13 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#6 | +0.19#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#133 | -0.03#47 |
| Success rate | 48.2%#14 | 48.9%#10 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.7%#129 | 38.1%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.7%#1 | 13.6%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1%#135 | 13.0%#89 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#50 | 14.5%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7%#109 | 11.5%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.40#24 | 5.00#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.70#133 | 3.43#24 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#126 | own 30#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#46 | own 26#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9#86 | 72.2#12 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.30#1 | +0.20#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#44 | +0.18#19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#128 | +0.13#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.23#130 | -0.19#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2%#1 | 50.9%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 43.7%#41 | 46.4%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#90 | 13.1%#7 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.7%#4 | 40.6%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7%#131 | 25.3%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#17 | 53.1%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.3%#118 | 36.7%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.5%#8 | 79.3%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.6%#124 | 56.7%#45 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas schedule · Utah schedule · all Week 2 projections
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