Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 35.2, Kansas 19.7 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Utah wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.5 points and 54.8 combined points.
Kansas is 2-2, scoring 36 and allowing 17 points per game (+19 per game). Utah (No. 12) is 4-0, scoring 43.3 and allowing 10.3 points per game (+33 per game).
Utah's strong defense (14th) should limit Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Utah's strong offense (14th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) against Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (50th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas by 7 and Utah by 38 about 80% of the time.
Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah by about 13.4. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Kansas 24, Utah 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 10.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kansas / Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -15.5 → Utah -15.75 | 51.75 → 49.5 | +500 / -725 |
| DraftKings | Utah -15.5 | 51.5 → 49.5 | +500 / -700 |
| Bovada | Utah -15.5 → Utah -16 | 52 → 49.5 | +500 / -750 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -15.5 | 54.8 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Utah -16 | 49.5 | 84% |
| Blended projection | Utah -16 | 50.6 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 84% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -15.5 · market Utah -15.75 · difference -0.2 pts (Utah view)
- Total
- model 54.8 · market 49.5 · difference +5.3
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kansas 19.7, Utah 35.2 | Utah 85%right winner | 1.5 | 10.2 |
| New formula | Kansas 20.1, Utah 34.1 | Utah 82%right winner | 3.0 | 10.7 |
Final: Kansas 24, Utah 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kansas vs Utah: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kansas | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#38 | 43.3#12 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0#31 | 10.3#3 |
| Yards per play | 6.89#28 | 7.33#8 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.38#8 | 4.02#1 |
| Rushing yards per game | 264.8#7 | 227.0#22 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.8#60 | 264.3#39 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 105.8#17 | 102.0#14 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 142.0#7 | 162.3#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#57 | 0.25#17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#136 | 1.00#52 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#99 | 2.50#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#45 | 0.75#11 |
| Stat | Kansas | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#52 | +0.19#28 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#27 | -0.02#43 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#65 | 48.0%#25 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.2%#10 | 35.4%#18 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0%#25 | 14.6%#33 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#23 | 8.3%#7 |
| Havoc rate | 16.6%#20 | 17.3%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#51 | 12.6%#59 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58#113 | 4.49#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.42#36 | 3.13#16 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#118 | own 36#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#131 | own 25#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.3#10 | 67.0#54 |
| Stat | Kansas | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#26 | +0.10#70 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#71 | +0.28#24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#7 | +0.04#74 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#83 | -0.07#34 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2%#12 | 49.5%#23 |
| Passing success rate | 38.7%#100 | 55.6%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.6%#9 | 20.9%#114 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4%#87 | 39.1%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.5%#15 | 28.8%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.9%#66 | 55.3%#8 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#3 | 29.3%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.0%#27 | 62.3%#81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.9%#55 | 51.6%#45 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas schedule · Utah schedule · all Week 6 projections
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