Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 31.4, Utah State 20 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Utah wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.4 points and 51.3 combined points.
Utah State is 0-2, scoring 15.5 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-7 per game). Utah (No. 17) is 2-0, scoring 54.5 and allowing 12 points per game (+42.5 per game).
Utah's strong defense (27th) should limit Utah State's below-average offense (88th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Utah's elite offense (12th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.3 points against an average defense) against Utah State's below-average defense (85th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 11 and Utah by 34 about 80% of the time.
Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah by about 9.3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Utah State 0, Utah 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.6 points and the total by 18.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah State / Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -27.75 → Utah -26.25 | 57.25 → 55.75 | +1500 / -5750 |
| DraftKings | Utah -27.5 → Utah -26.5 | 57.5 → 55.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
| Bovada | Utah -28 → Utah -26 | 57 → 56 | +1300 / -7000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -11.5 | 51.3 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Utah -26.5 | 55.8 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Utah -24 | 55.8 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -17 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -11.4 · market Utah -26.25 · difference -14.8 pts (Utah view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 55.75 · difference -4.5
Model margin is 14.8 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah State 20.0, Utah 31.4 | Utah 77%right winner | 21.6 | 18.3 |
| New formula | Utah State 17.2, Utah 41.3 | Utah 94%right winner | 8.9 | 25.5 |
Final: Utah State 0, Utah 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah State vs Utah: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Utah State | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.5#130 | 54.5#6 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5#79 | 12.0#25 |
| Yards per play | 5.67#101 | 8.04#14 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.39#28 | 3.98#16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.0#99 | 253.0#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 271.5#37 | 285.5#29 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 111.5#49 | 105.5#40 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#59 | 165.0#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.50#137 | 0.50#38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#128 | 1.00#56 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#65 | 2.50#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#123 | 0.50#13 |
| Stat | Utah State | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11#130 | +0.16#27 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#34 | +0.05#83 |
| Success rate | 37.6%#114 | 46.0%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1%#53 | 38.7%#49 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#103 | 13.1%#66 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.2%#4 | 11.7%#75 |
| Havoc rate | 9.8%#128 | 15.0%#55 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.8%#133 | 12.4%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.48#133 | 4.59#38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.48#48 | 3.95#81 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#95 | own 39#10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#115 | own 23#11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.5#20 | 67.0#60 |
| Stat | Utah State | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.19#132 | +0.12#46 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#110 | +0.21#35 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#41 | +0.07#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#34 | +0.03#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2%#109 | 52.4%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 36.7%#106 | 65.8%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 27.4%#136 | 19.1%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#15 | 39.5%#20 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#44 | 29.0%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.6%#26 | 61.9%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#63 | 33.3%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.6%#112 | 69.6%#46 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.9%#28 | 64.2%#88 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah State schedule · Utah schedule · all Week 3 projections
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