Matchup analysis
Our model projects Utah 27, BYU 26 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Utah wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 53 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
BYU (No. 8) is 6-1 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+14.5 per game). Utah (No. 6) is 7-0 against the 64th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 14.6 points per game (+22.8 per game).
BYU's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Utah's strong defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points BYU puts up. Utah's strong offense (17th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets BYU's strong defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between BYU by 21 and Utah by 24 about 80% of the time.
Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field BYU would be favoured by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (BYU / Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -3 | 51.5 | +120 / -142 |
| DraftKings | Utah -3 | 51.5 | +120 / -142 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -1.5 | 53.0 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Utah -3 | 51.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Utah -3 | 52.3 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -1.4 · market Utah -3 · difference -1.6 pts (Utah view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 51.5 · difference +1.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Utah 56%.
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward BYU than the market.
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BYU vs Utah: stat comparison
| Stat | BYU | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.1#40 | 37.4#14 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6#26 | 14.6#9 |
| Yards per play | 6.71#23 | 6.95#14 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.87#18 | 5.07#31 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.6#35 | 225.9#14 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.1#70 | 256.6#38 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 110.7#13 | 101.9#4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.6#64 | 216.7#90 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#30 | 1.00#78 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#68 | 1.14#35 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#95 | 1.86#80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.57#5 | 1.43#45 |
| Stat | BYU | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#38 | +0.20#19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#48 | -0.02#34 |
| Success rate | 48.6%#20 | 50.5%#9 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3%#34 | 34.9%#12 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#61 | 15.5%#16 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#10 | 9.5%#15 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#63 | 17.3%#12 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.8%#9 | 15.3%#115 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#10 | 4.82#18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#84 | 3.17#15 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#61 | own 32#38 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#66 | own 26#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#100 | 69.4#32 |
| Stat | BYU | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#51 | +0.18#17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#28 | +0.23#24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#75 | -0.03#38 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#39 | -0.01#44 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.3%#17 | 49.0%#19 |
| Passing success rate | 47.8%#26 | 52.0%#10 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#43 | 21.8%#126 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#64 | 41.7%#7 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#79 | 27.6%#44 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.8%#4 | 54.0%#9 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#101 | 34.7%#31 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.7%#8 | 71.4%#28 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#102 | 47.1%#22 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: BYU schedule · Utah schedule · all Week 10 projections
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