Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 32.5, Houston 26.4 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Utah wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Houston (No. 14) is 6-1, scoring 39.3 and allowing 21 points per game (+18.3 per game). Utah (No. 10) is 6-0, scoring 40.2 and allowing 14.8 points per game (+25.4 per game).
Houston's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) meets Utah's strong defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Houston puts up. Utah's strong offense (17th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Houston's strong defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 16 and Utah by 29 about 80% of the time.
Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah by about 4. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Houston 13, Utah 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 24.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston / Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | +195 / -240 |
| Opening line | Utah -6.5 | 50.5 | +210 / -258 |
| DraftKings | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | +190 / -230 |
| FanDuel | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | +198 / -245 |
| BetRivers | Utah -6.5 | 58 | +200 / -250 |
| BetMGM | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | +200 / -235 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -6 | 58.9 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | 68% |
| Blended projection | Utah -6.5 | 57.8 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -6.1 · market Utah -6.5 · difference -0.4 pts (Utah view)
- Total
- model 58.9 · market 57.5 · difference +1.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston 26.4, Utah 32.5 | Utah 66%right winner | 1.9 | 24.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Houston 13, Utah 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston vs Utah: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Houston | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1#55 | 41.3#4 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8#48 | 18.9#18 |
| Yards per play | 5.64#86 | 6.66#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22#28 | 5.69#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.8#42 | 264.1#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.4#73 | 216.6#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.9#31 | 196.4#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.2#48 | 187.3#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.77#26 | 0.69#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.23#46 | 1.08#68 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#50 | 2.54#26 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.31#22 | 1.08#13 |
| Stat | Houston | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#99 | +0.19#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#23 | -0.03#47 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#69 | 48.9%#10 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0%#62 | 38.1%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#92 | 13.6%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#28 | 13.0%#89 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#10 | 14.5%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#104 | 11.5%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.05#58 | 5.00#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.85#67 | 3.43#24 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#38 | own 30#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#86 | own 26#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.8#10 | 72.2#12 |
| Stat | Houston | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#126 | +0.20#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#49 | +0.18#19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#49 | +0.13#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#23 | -0.19#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.9%#97 | 50.9%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 44.4%#34 | 46.4%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#94 | 13.1%#7 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.9%#92 | 40.6%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.1%#15 | 25.3%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.5%#77 | 53.1%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#37 | 36.7%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.1%#20 | 79.3%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.6%#10 | 56.7%#45 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston schedule · Utah schedule · all Week 8 projections
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