Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona 27.9, Northern Illinois 19.8 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Arizona wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Northern Illinois is 0-2, scoring 12 and allowing 34 points per game (-22 per game). Arizona is 1-1, scoring 26 and allowing 17.5 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Arizona's strong defense (25th) should limit Northern Illinois's struggling offense (131st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Arizona's strong offense (36th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.5 points against an average defense) against Northern Illinois's below-average defense (114th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Illinois by 14 and Arizona by 31 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona by about 6. The game is on TNT.
Result: Northern Illinois 17, Arizona 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.9 points and the total by 11.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Illinois / Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -35 → Arizona -34.5 | 49.75 → 50.25 | +2000 / -6500 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -35.5 → Arizona -34.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | Arizona -34.5 | 50 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -8 | 47.7 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -34.5 | 50.3 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -30.5 | 50.9 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -8.1 · market Arizona -34.5 · difference -26.4 pts (Arizona view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 50.25 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 26.4 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Illinois 19.8, Arizona 27.9 | Arizona 70%right winner | 16.9 | 11.3 |
| New formula | Northern Illinois 10.1, Arizona 38.7 | Arizona 96%right winner | 3.6 | 10.1 |
Final: Northern Illinois 17, Arizona 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Illinois vs Arizona: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.0#135 | 26.0#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0#126 | 17.5#59 |
| Yards per play | 4.12#136 | 6.69#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64#92 | 4.94#49 |
| Rushing yards per game | 89.0#135 | 157.5#87 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.0#118 | 284.0#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 205.5#121 | 92.0#22 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.0#65 | 172.5#51 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#122 | 1.50#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#40 | 0.50#93 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#99 | 3.00#18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.50#138 | 2.50#107 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.25#137 | +0.10#66 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#80 | -0.08#24 |
| Success rate | 36.8%#124 | 52.3%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2%#107 | 36.0%#30 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.0%#130 | 13.8%#48 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#69 | 12.0%#83 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#114 | 16.0%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.4%#132 | 9.2%#11 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43#117 | 4.73#31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62#60 | 3.50#49 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#121 | own 31#64 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#126 | own 28#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0#104 | 66.0#69 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#123 | +0.17#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.41#137 | +0.04#83 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#112 | -0.13#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#49 | -0.05#36 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.9%#95 | 51.1%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 32.6%#126 | 53.2%#25 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6%#131 | 10.2%#8 |
| Passing-down success rate | 0.0%#138 | 38.7%#22 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#107 | 27.9%#63 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5%#108 | 56.5%#16 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.6%#132 | 36.0%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#93 | 85.7%#7 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#85 | 60.0%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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