Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected BYU 27, Arizona 23 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: BYU wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arizona is 1-0, scoring 35 and allowing 7 points per game (+28 per game). BYU (No. 15) is 1-0, scoring 63 and allowing 7 points per game (+56 per game).
BYU's strong defense (17th) should limit Arizona's strong offense (36th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.9 points against an average defense). BYU's strong offense (14th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) meets Arizona's strong defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points BYU puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona by 19 and BYU by 27 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour BYU by about 1.9. The game is on Fox.
Result: Arizona 17, BYU 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7 points and the total by 4.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arizona / BYU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -7 → BYU -6.75 | 50.5 → 49.25 | +237.5 / -290 |
| Bovada | BYU -7.5 → BYU -7 | 50.5 → 49 | +255 / -310 |
| DraftKings | BYU -6.5 | 49.5 | +220 / -270 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | BYU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | BYU -4 | 49.9 | 60% |
| Market consensus | BYU -7 | 49.3 | 71% |
| Blended projection | BYU -6.5 | 50.1 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- BYU win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model BYU -4 · market BYU -6.75 · difference -2.7 pts (BYU view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 49.25 · difference +0.6
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Arizona than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arizona 23.0, BYU 27.0 | BYU 60%right winner | 7.0 | 4.9 |
| New formula | Arizona 20.0, BYU 35.3 | BYU 82%right winner | 4.4 | 10.3 |
Final: Arizona 17, BYU 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arizona vs BYU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arizona | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.5#30 | 31.4#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.3#21 | 19.1#19 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#46 | 6.16#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.10#19 | 5.42#40 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.0#63 | 188.1#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 248.4#47 | 222.0#75 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 151.1#49 | 137.4#29 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.2#21 | 213.6#61 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#46 | 0.71#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.08#3 | 1.50#19 |
| Sacks per game | 1.46#107 | 2.07#64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.23#98 | 1.07#11 |
| Stat | Arizona | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#48 | +0.10#32 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#13 | -0.03#46 |
| Success rate | 42.6%#61 | 45.4%#35 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2%#38 | 39.7%#46 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3%#42 | 13.8%#27 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.9%#7 | 12.2%#66 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#43 | 12.4%#71 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8%#65 | 11.4%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.75#91 | 4.18#40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#52 | 3.24#15 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#2 | own 31#35 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#48 | own 30#87 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9#39 | 66.6#62 |
| Stat | Arizona | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#48 | +0.12#22 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#57 | +0.08#52 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#67 | -0.01#59 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.23#5 | -0.04#46 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.2%#89 | 47.6%#24 |
| Passing success rate | 43.0%#49 | 42.9%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#82 | 15.0%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#58 | 29.8%#79 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3%#17 | 26.7%#23 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7%#73 | 43.3%#47 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%#25 | 34.0%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.8%#115 | 62.7%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#100 | 41.5%#6 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 2 projections
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