Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona 30.9, Iowa State 21 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Arizona wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 51.9 combined points.
Iowa State is 3-3, scoring 29.7 and allowing 21.7 points per game (+8 per game). Arizona (No. 25) is 5-1, scoring 35.7 and allowing 19 points per game (+16.7 per game).
Arizona's strong defense (22nd) should limit Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Arizona's strong offense (26th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) against Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa State by 13 and Arizona by 32 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona by about 7.8. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Iowa State 3, Arizona 39. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.1 points and the total by 9.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Iowa State / Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -11.5 | 51.5 | +300 / -390 |
| Opening line | Arizona -10 | 50.5 | +310 / -395 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -11.5 | 51.5 | +295 / -375 |
| FanDuel | Arizona -11.5 | 51.5 | +315 / -410 |
| BetRivers | Arizona -11.5 | 51 | +295 / -420 |
| BetMGM | Arizona -11.5 | 51.5 | +300 / -375 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -10 | 51.9 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -11.5 | 51.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -11.5 | 52.2 | 78% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -9.9 · market Arizona -11.5 · difference -1.6 pts (Arizona view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 51.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Iowa State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Iowa State 21.0, Arizona 30.9 | Arizona 74%right winner | 26.1 | 9.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Iowa State 3, Arizona 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Iowa State vs Arizona: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Iowa State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.4#70 | 31.5#30 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.2#27 | 19.3#21 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#68 | 6.14#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64#53 | 5.10#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.5#47 | 175.0#63 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.8#83 | 248.4#47 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.3#28 | 151.1#49 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.8#66 | 182.2#21 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#66 | 0.92#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#41 | 2.08#3 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08#128 | 1.46#107 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#55 | 2.23#98 |
| Stat | Iowa State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#80 | +0.06#48 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#50 | -0.11#13 |
| Success rate | 44.9%#44 | 42.6%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#42 | 39.2%#38 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#55 | 13.3%#42 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#68 | 8.9%#7 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#44 | 13.5%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#77 | 11.8%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85#82 | 3.75#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.63#43 | 3.73#52 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#45 | own 35#2 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#20 | own 28#48 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#46 | 68.9#39 |
| Stat | Iowa State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#71 | +0.06#48 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#78 | +0.06#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#42 | +0.01#67 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#65 | -0.23#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#43 | 42.2%#89 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#39 | 43.0%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6%#55 | 18.8%#82 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#65 | 31.3%#58 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#56 | 25.3%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1%#55 | 40.7%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#60 | 35.7%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#66 | 51.8%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#37 | 64.7%#100 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa State schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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