Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arizona 34, Arizona State 20 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Arizona wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14 points and 53.5 combined points.
Arizona State is 4-3 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.9 and allowing 29.9 points per game (+1 per game). Arizona (No. 22) is 6-1 against the 82nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+19.4 per game).
Expect Arizona State to find it hard going: Arizona's strong defense (22nd) outranks Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense). Arizona's strong offense (26th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th); that mismatch is where most of Arizona's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona State by 9 and Arizona by 37 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona by about 11.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arizona State / Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -4.5 | 52.5 | +180 / -218 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -4.5 | 52.5 | +180 / -218 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -14 | 53.5 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -4.5 | 52.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -6 | 53.2 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference +16 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -14 · market Arizona -4.5 · difference +9.5 pts (Arizona view)
- Total
- model 53.5 · market 52.5 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 9.5 pts more toward Arizona than the market.
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Arizona State vs Arizona: stat comparison
| Stat | Arizona State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9#56 | 36.1#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9#110 | 16.7#23 |
| Yards per play | 6.37#44 | 6.96#13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#58 | 4.81#15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6#75 | 154.9#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.3#24 | 311.6#8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.0#74 | 127.4#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.6#63 | 187.7#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#81 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#125 | 0.43#124 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#68 | 2.71#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#119 | 2.43#107 |
| Stat | Arizona State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#111 | +0.21#17 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#65 | -0.04#31 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#80 | 49.7%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#52 | 35.0%#15 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3%#19 | 14.9%#24 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#55 | 10.3%#30 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#54 | 13.6%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8%#132 | 14.1%#93 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#55 | 4.68#29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.56#44 | 2.69#1 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#79 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#131 | own 28#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#46 | 67.0#61 |
| Stat | Arizona State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#115 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#94 | +0.33#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#78 | -0.00#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#56 | -0.06#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1%#98 | 47.5%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 42.8%#60 | 52.3%#9 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#93 | 17.4%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9%#39 | 43.4%#5 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#42 | 29.6%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2%#132 | 58.6%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0%#51 | 36.9%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#54 | 73.2%#19 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#42 | 46.8%#20 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona State schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 13 projections
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