Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona 35.1, West Virginia 24.9 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Arizona wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.2 points and 60 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Arizona is 4-1, scoring 32.4 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+15.8 per game). West Virginia is 3-2, scoring 37.4 and allowing 28.8 points per game (+8.6 per game).
Arizona's strong offense (34th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over West Virginia's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of Arizona's projected points come from. Expect West Virginia to find it hard going: Arizona's strong defense (26th) outranks West Virginia's strong offense (41st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona by 33 and West Virginia by 12 about 80% of the time.
West Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arizona is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on TNT.
Result: Arizona 52, West Virginia 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.8 points and the total by 23.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arizona / West Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -3 → Arizona -3.5 | 60.75 → 61.5 | -160 / +135 |
| Bovada | Arizona -3 → Arizona -3.5 | 60 → 61.5 | -145 / +125 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -3 → Arizona -3.5 | 61.5 | -175 / +145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -10 | 60.0 | 25% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -3.5 | 61.5 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -4.5 | 61.3 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Virginia win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference -16 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -10.2 · market Arizona -3.5 · difference -6.7 pts (West Virginia view)
- Total
- model 60.0 · market 61.5 · difference -1.5
Model margin is 6.7 pts more toward Arizona than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arizona 35.1, West Virginia 24.9 | Arizona 75%right winner | 10.8 | 23.0 |
| New formula | Arizona 35.7, West Virginia 26.4 | Arizona 73%right winner | 11.7 | 20.9 |
Final: Arizona 52, West Virginia 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arizona vs West Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arizona | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4#61 | 37.4#27 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6#28 | 28.8#110 |
| Yards per play | 6.66#44 | 6.81#34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.83#23 | 6.63#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.2#86 | 305.0#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 303.2#16 | 177.0#112 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 98.2#12 | 185.2#110 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.4#54 | 273.4#131 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#94 | 0.60#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#101 | 1.00#54 |
| Sacks per game | 2.80#24 | 2.40#43 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#126 | 1.60#66 |
| Stat | Arizona | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#24 | +0.20#27 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#23 | +0.20#127 |
| Success rate | 50.7%#10 | 44.9%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.5%#12 | 46.3%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0%#26 | 14.6%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#17 | 15.5%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#60 | 13.7%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#62 | 12.5%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.67#34 | 4.97#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.59#2 | 3.74#66 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#103 | own 31#52 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#54 | own 27#42 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4#37 | 70.8#25 |
| Stat | Arizona | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#61 | +0.21#10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#25 | +0.15#50 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#17 | +0.10#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#48 | +0.30#130 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.6%#21 | 48.3%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 52.2%#15 | 36.3%#119 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#45 | 13.2%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.9%#4 | 33.0%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4%#73 | 29.3%#71 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 62.1%#3 | 54.1%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6%#57 | 36.5%#54 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.7%#30 | 62.5%#78 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.1%#40 | 50.0%#35 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona schedule · West Virginia schedule · all Week 6 projections
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