Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona 28.1, Washington State 22.2 at Martin Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Arizona wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 50.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arizona is 2-1, scoring 31.3 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+14 per game). Washington State is 1-2, scoring 21.7 and allowing 21.7 points per game (+0 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Arizona's strong offense (35th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) against Washington State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th). Arizona's strong defense (31st) should limit Washington State's below-average offense (101st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona by 28 and Washington State by 17 about 80% of the time.
Washington State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arizona is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Arizona 34, Washington State 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 7.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arizona / Washington State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -11.75 | 48 → 47.5 | -430 / +327.5 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -13.5 → Arizona -11.5 | 48.5 → 47.5 | -425 / +330 |
| Bovada | Arizona -10 → Arizona -12 | 47.5 | -435 / +325 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -6 | 50.2 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -11.5 | 47.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -11 | 48.6 | 23% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington State win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -5.9 · market Arizona -11.75 · difference +5.9 pts (Washington State view)
- Total
- model 50.2 · market 47.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 5.9 pts more toward Washington State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arizona 28.1, Washington State 22.2 | Arizona 65%right winner | 4.1 | 7.8 |
| New formula | Arizona 28.4, Washington State 21.2 | Arizona 68%right winner | 2.8 | 8.3 |
Final: Arizona 34, Washington State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arizona vs Washington State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arizona | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3#72 | 21.7#116 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3#42 | 21.7#68 |
| Yards per play | 6.99#31 | 5.57#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.03#50 | 6.16#108 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.3#100 | 183.0#60 |
| Net passing yards per game | 310.3#20 | 125.3#131 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 94.0#19 | 186.3#116 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.7#67 | 197.7#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#109 | 1.00#100 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#118 | 0.67#115 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#25 | 0.33#138 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#124 | 2.33#113 |
| Stat | Arizona | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#14 | +0.03#97 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#60 | -0.01#53 |
| Success rate | 53.2%#4 | 40.8%#101 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3%#33 | 40.5%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#34 | 11.6%#102 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#37 | 12.7%#95 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#55 | 13.4%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#29 | 14.3%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.12#17 | 3.78#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92#12 | 3.24#25 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#92 | own 26#124 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#69 | own 31#95 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3#75 | 55.3#131 |
| Stat | Arizona | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#24 | +0.04#89 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#25 | +0.02#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#37 | +0.03#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#80 | -0.06#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#29 | 40.3%#101 |
| Passing success rate | 55.3%#14 | 39.4%#97 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.2%#15 | 18.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.5%#5 | 25.3%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5%#74 | 28.1%#61 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 64.9%#4 | 28.1%#131 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6%#65 | 39.0%#75 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 81.8%#9 | 62.9%#81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#61 | 52.4%#50 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona schedule · Washington State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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