Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected TCU 34.8, West Virginia 23 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: TCU wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 57.8 combined points.
West Virginia is 4-3, scoring 37.6 and allowing 34 points per game (+3.6 per game). TCU is 3-3, scoring 24 and allowing 12.2 points per game (+11.8 per game).
West Virginia's strong offense (29th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) meets TCU's strong defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points West Virginia puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) against West Virginia's struggling defense (121st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Virginia by 11 and TCU by 34 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour TCU by about 9.7. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: West Virginia 24, TCU 20. West Virginia won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Virginia / TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | TCU -10 | 58.5 | +285 / -365 |
| Opening line | TCU -6.5 | 58.5 | +198 / -250 |
| DraftKings | TCU -10 | 58.5 | +285 / -360 |
| FanDuel | TCU -10.5 | 58.5 | +285 / -365 |
| BetRivers | TCU -10 | 58.5 | +275 / -375 |
| BetMGM | TCU -10 | 58.5 | +290 / -375 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | TCU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | TCU -12 | 57.8 | 78% |
| Market consensus | TCU -10 | 58.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | TCU -10.5 | 58.6 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- TCU win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model TCU -11.8 · market TCU -10 · difference +1.8 pts (TCU view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 58.5 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward TCU than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Virginia 23.0, TCU 34.8 | TCU 78%wrong winner | 15.8 | 13.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: West Virginia 24, TCU 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
West Virginia vs TCU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | West Virginia | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.8#110 | 30.7#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.8#113 | 25.3#72 |
| Yards per play | 5.31#111 | 6.19#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.11#101 | 5.69#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.3#53 | 142.4#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.5#100 | 283.0#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.9#73 | 143.7#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 272.8#130 | 244.4#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#100 | 1.54#122 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42#26 | 1.31#37 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#45 | 1.85#82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33#108 | 1.69#62 |
| Stat | West Virginia | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13#130 | +0.09#35 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#59 | +0.01#69 |
| Success rate | 36.3%#127 | 44.2%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#58 | 40.2%#50 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3%#132 | 12.9%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#112 | 11.4%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#27 | 12.2%#78 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#59 | 12.1%#72 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63#107 | 4.32#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#97 | 3.68#46 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#76 | own 30#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#112 | own 29#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.0#28 | 68.8#41 |
| Stat | West Virginia | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#135 | -0.06#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#115 | +0.21#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#19 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#101 | +0.08#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.9%#118 | 42.3%#88 |
| Passing success rate | 34.1%#129 | 45.8%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#88 | 21.1%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.6%#120 | 34.2%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6%#115 | 31.5%#93 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.1%#134 | 46.6%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.3%#79 | 42.2%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.3%#67 | 60.7%#71 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.0%#82 | 59.5%#66 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Virginia schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.