Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected BYU 28.6, TCU 23.3 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: BYU wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
BYU (No. 10) is 3-0, scoring 44 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+28.3 per game). TCU is 2-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+16.8 per game).
BYU's strong offense (14th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.1 points against an average defense) meets TCU's strong defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points BYU puts up. Expect TCU to find it hard going: BYU's elite defense (13th) outranks TCU's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between BYU by 28 and TCU by 17 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. BYU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: BYU 17, TCU 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 24.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (BYU / TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -5.75 | 50.75 → 48.25 | -227.5 / +187.5 |
| DraftKings | BYU -5.5 | 52.5 → 48.5 | -225 / +185 |
| Bovada | BYU -6 | 49 → 48 | -230 / +190 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | TCU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | BYU -5 | 51.9 | 37% |
| Market consensus | BYU -5.5 | 48.3 | 33% |
| Blended projection | BYU -5.5 | 49.4 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- TCU win probability
- model 37% · market (no-vig) 33% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model BYU -5.2 · market BYU -5.75 · difference +0.5 pts (TCU view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 48.25 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward TCU than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | BYU 28.6, TCU 23.3 | BYU 63%right winner | 1.8 | 24.9 |
| New formula | BYU 28.9, TCU 23.1 | BYU 65%right winner | 1.2 | 25.1 |
Final: BYU 17, TCU 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
BYU vs TCU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.0#10 | 29.3#80 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7#29 | 12.5#14 |
| Yards per play | 8.16#3 | 6.69#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.82#33 | 5.22#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 267.7#9 | 153.3#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.7#71 | 298.0#21 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 87.0#9 | 96.8#12 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.3#73 | 182.8#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#49 | 1.50#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#15 | 1.00#50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#109 | 2.25#49 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#10 | 2.25#98 |
| Stat | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#46 | +0.07#89 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#25 | -0.04#34 |
| Success rate | 50.5%#16 | 44.0%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3%#36 | 38.2%#43 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#37 | 11.5%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#64 | 9.5%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#63 | 14.1%#73 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#27 | 11.9%#48 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.70#31 | 3.96#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.85#74 | 3.69#63 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#25 | own 33#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#41 | own 27#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.7#108 | 67.5#54 |
| Stat | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#42 | -0.08#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#49 | +0.19#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#63 | -0.11#18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#17 | +0.01#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 60.8%#1 | 44.4%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 59.0%#3 | 43.7%#68 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#45 | 14.7%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3%#90 | 22.0%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#87 | 31.7%#91 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 64.5%#3 | 43.4%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.4%#128 | 27.1%#8 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.0%#43 | 61.1%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.7%#90 | 50.0%#36 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: BYU schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.