Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected TCU 43, Grambling 8.2 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: TCU wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 34.8 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Grambling is 2-0, scoring 48.5 and allowing 16.5 points per game (+32 per game). TCU is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 15 points per game (-5 per game).
Grambling plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why TCU's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TCU by 12 and TCU by 57 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour TCU by about 32.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Grambling 7, TCU 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.2 points and the total by 18.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Grambling / TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | TCU -43.75 → TCU -44.5 | 54 → 56.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | TCU -44 → TCU -44.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | TCU -43.5 → TCU -44.5 | 53.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | TCU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | TCU -35 | 51.1 | 99% |
| Market consensus | TCU -44.5 | 56.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | TCU -43 | 56.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- TCU win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model TCU -34.8 · market TCU -44.5 · difference -9.7 pts (TCU view)
- Total
- model 51.1 · market 56.5 · difference -5.4
Model margin is 9.7 pts more toward Grambling than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Grambling 8.2, TCU 43.0 | TCU 99%right winner | 21.2 | 18.9 |
| New formula | Grambling 10.5, TCU 43.4 | TCU 98%right winner | 23.1 | 16.1 |
Final: Grambling 7, TCU 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Grambling vs TCU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Grambling | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.1 | 30.7#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.1 | 25.3#72 |
| Yards per play | 4.91 | 6.19#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 5.69#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.6 | 142.4#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 155.1 | 283.0#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.7 | 143.7#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.1 | 244.4#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.54#122 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 1.31#37 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83 | 1.85#82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.69#62 |
| Stat | Grambling | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.09#35 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.01#69 |
| Success rate | 35.4% | 44.2%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 40.2%#50 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 12.9%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 11.4%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3% | 12.2%#78 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 12.1%#72 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44 | 4.32#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.03 | 3.68#46 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 30#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5 | 68.8#41 |
| Stat | Grambling | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.06#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.21#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.08#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.1% | 42.3%#88 |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 45.8%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.6% | 21.1%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 34.2%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8% | 31.5%#93 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5% | 46.6%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 42.2%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.9% | 60.7%#71 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.8% | 59.5%#66 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Grambling schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 2 projections
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