Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected TCU 29.6, North Carolina 21.5 on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: TCU wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 51.1 combined points.
North Carolina has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. TCU has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
TCU's strong defense (21st) should limit North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense). Expect TCU to find it hard going: North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) outranks TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina by 14 and TCU by 31 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: North Carolina 15, TCU 10. North Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina / TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | TCU -7.5 | 50.5 → 46.25 | +222.5 / -272.5 |
| Bovada | TCU -7.5 | 50.5 → 46 | +195 / -235 |
| DraftKings | TCU -7.5 | 46.5 | +250 / -310 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | TCU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | TCU -8 | 51.1 | 70% |
| Market consensus | TCU -7.5 | 46.3 | 70% |
| Blended projection | TCU -7.5 | 47.6 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- TCU win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model TCU -8.1 · market TCU -7.5 · difference +0.6 pts (TCU view)
- Total
- model 51.1 · market 46.25 · difference +4.9
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward TCU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina 21.5, TCU 29.6 | TCU 70%wrong winner | 13.1 | 26.1 |
| New formula | North Carolina 22.1, TCU 29.8 | TCU 67%wrong winner | 12.8 | 26.9 |
Final: North Carolina 15, TCU 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina vs TCU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Carolina | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3#120 | 30.7#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5#65 | 25.3#72 |
| Yards per play | 5.16#121 | 6.19#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.11#20 | 5.69#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.3#129 | 142.4#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.6#107 | 283.0#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.7#35 | 143.7#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 203.1#44 | 244.4#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#93 | 1.54#122 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#99 | 1.31#37 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#18 | 1.85#82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#75 | 1.69#62 |
| Stat | North Carolina | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#111 | +0.09#35 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#55 | +0.01#69 |
| Success rate | 38.3%#115 | 44.2%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#59 | 40.2%#50 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5%#128 | 12.9%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#18 | 11.4%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#93 | 12.2%#78 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#93 | 12.1%#72 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#95 | 4.32#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#75 | 3.68#46 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#49 | own 30#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#53 | own 29#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1#134 | 68.8#41 |
| Stat | North Carolina | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#112 | -0.06#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#84 | +0.21#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#96 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#38 | +0.08#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.9%#124 | 42.3%#88 |
| Passing success rate | 38.2%#102 | 45.8%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#61 | 21.1%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3%#106 | 34.2%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#34 | 31.5%#93 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6%#86 | 46.6%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#99 | 42.2%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.9%#123 | 60.7%#71 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#26 | 59.5%#66 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 1 projections
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