Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Baylor 26, TCU 23.7 at McLane Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Baylor wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
TCU is 2-3, scoring 25.4 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+12 per game). Baylor is 4-1, scoring 34.8 and allowing 14.2 points per game (+20.6 per game).
Baylor's strong defense (39th) should limit TCU's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense). Baylor's strong offense (39th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.3 points against an average defense) meets TCU's strong defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Baylor puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TCU by 20 and Baylor by 25 about 80% of the time.
Baylor gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Baylor by about 0.2. The game is on FS1.
Result: TCU 17, Baylor 6. TCU won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (TCU / Baylor) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Baylor -6.5 → Baylor -4.5 | 50.25 | +177 / -212.5 |
| DraftKings | Baylor -6.5 → Baylor -3.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +154 / -185 |
| Bovada | Baylor -6.5 → Baylor -5.5 | 49 → 50 | +200 / -240 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Baylor win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Baylor -2.5 | 49.7 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Baylor -4.5 | 50.3 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Baylor -4 | 51.0 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Baylor win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Baylor -2.3 · market Baylor -4.5 · difference -2.2 pts (Baylor view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 50.25 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward TCU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | TCU 23.7, Baylor 26.0 | Baylor 56%wrong winner | 13.3 | 26.7 |
| New formula | TCU 22.3, Baylor 26.6 | Baylor 61%wrong winner | 15.3 | 25.9 |
Final: TCU 17, Baylor 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
TCU vs Baylor: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.4#92 | 34.8#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4#9 | 14.2#12 |
| Yards per play | 6.53#42 | 6.02#78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86#20 | 4.46#6 |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.0#105 | 186.8#55 |
| Net passing yards per game | 281.6#21 | 292.0#16 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.6#17 | 116.4#25 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.8#18 | 204.0#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#122 | 1.40#126 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#81 | 1.60#13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#62 | 3.80#3 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#112 | 1.60#62 |
| Stat | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#105 | +0.09#73 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#26 | -0.07#19 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#74 | 42.3%#82 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9%#26 | 35.7%#20 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#99 | 13.3%#59 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.5%#8 | 10.1%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#78 | 17.7%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#64 | 14.1%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.77#99 | 3.57#113 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.06#83 | 3.07#14 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#39 | own 35#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#56 | own 28#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#73 | 79.6#3 |
| Stat | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#133 | +0.04#93 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#54 | +0.12#62 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#34 | -0.11#11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#37 | -0.04#40 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0%#91 | 44.0%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#63 | 38.9%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#67 | 15.4%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.1%#129 | 35.2%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.2%#58 | 28.1%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#79 | 43.8%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8%#28 | 36.3%#51 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.2%#70 | 50.4%#119 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#63 | 37.3%#4 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: TCU schedule · Baylor schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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