Matchup analysis
Our model projects TCU 25, Kansas State 22 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: TCU wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kansas State is 4-3 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+11.8 per game). TCU is 3-4 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 13.9 points per game (+9.5 per game).
Expect Kansas State to find it hard going: TCU's strong defense (21st) outranks Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense). Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th) should limit TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas State by 20 and TCU by 25 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour TCU by about 0.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Kansas State vs TCU: stat comparison
| Stat | Kansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9#43 | 23.4#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#47 | 13.9#6 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#47 | 6.24#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.20#38 | 4.59#8 |
| Rushing yards per game | 222.3#16 | 129.6#120 |
| Net passing yards per game | 226.9#66 | 289.6#10 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.1#96 | 117.4#21 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 134.3#3 | 156.1#10 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#45 | 1.43#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#134 | 0.86#67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#37 | 2.43#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#9 | 2.86#123 |
| Stat | Kansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#43 | +0.01#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#53 | -0.06#21 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#48 | 42.0%#79 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2%#26 | 34.6%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#97 | 11.1%#110 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#112 | 8.5%#7 |
| Havoc rate | 16.5%#17 | 13.4%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#30 | 13.5%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#48 | 3.49#112 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.42#114 | 3.80#66 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 31#45 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#29 | own 26#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.7#16 | 67.1#57 |
| Stat | Kansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#22 | -0.14#138 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#60 | +0.13#56 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#49 | -0.04#31 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#72 | -0.09#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6%#24 | 39.4%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 41.4%#72 | 44.1%#53 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#48 | 18.1%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2%#32 | 25.3%#123 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#87 | 25.2%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.5%#8 | 43.8%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0%#27 | 32.3%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.3%#77 | 57.7%#95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.9%#117 | 58.8%#70 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas State schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 11 projections
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