Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas Tech 42, West Virginia 25 at Galaxy Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Texas Tech wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.9 points and 66.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
West Virginia is 5-3 against the 56th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 32.3 points per game (+3.6 per game). Texas Tech (No. 13) is 6-1 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+15.5 per game).
West Virginia's strong offense (29th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) meets Texas Tech's strong defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points West Virginia puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Texas Tech's strong offense (14th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) against West Virginia's struggling defense (121st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Virginia by 6 and Texas Tech by 39 about 80% of the time.
Texas Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas Tech by about 14.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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West Virginia vs Texas Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | West Virginia | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.9#27 | 35.9#26 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3#122 | 20.4#36 |
| Yards per play | 6.42#38 | 6.14#56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.11#136 | 5.69#74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 272.8#6 | 197.9#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.1#91 | 215.9#80 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.8#102 | 125.4#29 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 305.3#138 | 274.0#132 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#23 | 1.29#122 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#49 | 2.00#4 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#55 | 2.86#14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.88#80 | 1.86#67 |
| Stat | West Virginia | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#23 | +0.09#66 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#134 | -0.08#16 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#67 | 47.4%#28 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.1%#131 | 38.6%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#29 | 14.0%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7%#133 | 12.9%#91 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#75 | 14.8%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#45 | 16.6%#131 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.98#11 | 4.14#64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#70 | 3.40#33 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#86 | own 32#22 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#40 | own 26#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 74.1#6 | 67.4#55 |
| Stat | West Virginia | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#15 | +0.10#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#31 | +0.07#76 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#101 | -0.08#20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#136 | -0.08#28 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8%#64 | 48.9%#22 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#92 | 45.8%#39 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#33 | 18.1%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.7%#46 | 34.4%#35 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8%#121 | 31.4%#98 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#16 | 39.5%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.3%#103 | 39.4%#78 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.9%#59 | 53.6%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#55 | 61.1%#78 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Virginia schedule · Texas Tech schedule · all Week 10 projections
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