Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma State 26 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Texas Tech wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.5 points and 60.1 combined points.
Texas Tech (No. 13) is 6-1 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+15.5 per game). Oklahoma State (No. 24) is 5-2 against the 60th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+16.3 per game).
Texas Tech's strong offense (14th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th); that mismatch is where most of Texas Tech's projected points come from. Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) meets Texas Tech's strong defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oklahoma State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 31 and Oklahoma State by 14 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Tech / Oklahoma State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -15.5 | 61.5 | -700 / +500 |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -15.5 | 61.5 | -700 / +500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -8.5 | 60.1 | 29% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -15.5 | 61.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -14.5 | 61.3 | 16% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma State win probability
- model 29% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -8.5 · market Texas Tech -15.5 · difference +7.0 pts (Oklahoma State view)
- Total
- model 60.1 · market 61.5 · difference -1.4
Model margin is 7.0 pts more toward Oklahoma State than the market.
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Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.9#26 | 40.0#8 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.4#36 | 23.7#65 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#56 | 7.57#5 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69#74 | 5.81#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.9#34 | 195.1#39 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.9#80 | 347.6#2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.4#29 | 152.0#67 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 274.0#132 | 232.1#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#122 | 1.29#125 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#4 | 1.00#57 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#14 | 2.14#62 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#67 | 1.14#25 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#66 | +0.19#21 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#16 | +0.09#98 |
| Success rate | 47.4%#28 | 49.7%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.6%#37 | 43.0%#93 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0%#34 | 16.7%#7 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#91 | 10.9%#45 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#48 | 12.6%#104 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.6%#131 | 11.2%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.14#64 | 4.40#43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#33 | 3.90#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#22 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#22 | own 30#87 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4#55 | 71.7#11 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#54 | +0.10#57 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#76 | +0.28#19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#20 | +0.02#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#28 | +0.17#112 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9%#22 | 47.9%#31 |
| Passing success rate | 45.8%#39 | 51.2%#14 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#86 | 14.2%#22 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.4%#35 | 37.1%#21 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4%#98 | 26.0%#25 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.5%#88 | 38.3%#94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4%#78 | 38.5%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.6%#114 | 53.8%#113 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#78 | 65.2%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Tech schedule · Oklahoma State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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