Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Tech 32.4, Houston 23.1 at Galaxy Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Texas Tech wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.3 points and 55.5 combined points.
Houston (No. 22) is 2-0, scoring 55 and allowing 13 points per game (+42 per game). Texas Tech (No. 13) is 2-0, scoring 34 and allowing 17 points per game (+17 per game).
Expect Houston to find it hard going: Texas Tech's strong defense (15th) outranks Houston's strong offense (30th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense). Texas Tech's strong offense (14th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Houston's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th); that mismatch is where most of Texas Tech's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 13 and Texas Tech by 32 about 80% of the time.
Texas Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas Tech by about 7.2. The game is on Fox.
Result: Houston 26, Texas Tech 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.3 points and the total by 1.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston / Texas Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -11 → Texas Tech -8 | 53 → 52.5 | +260 / -305 |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -13.5 → Texas Tech -7.5 | 52.5 | +250 / -310 |
| Bovada | Texas Tech -8.5 | 53 → 52.5 | +270 / -300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -9.5 | 55.5 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -8 | 52.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -8.5 | 53.3 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas Tech win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -9.3 · market Texas Tech -8 · difference +1.3 pts (Texas Tech view)
- Total
- model 55.5 · market 52.5 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Texas Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston 23.1, Texas Tech 32.4 | Texas Tech 73%right winner | 7.3 | 1.5 |
| New formula | Houston 22.2, Texas Tech 36.7 | Texas Tech 82%right winner | 12.5 | 4.8 |
Final: Houston 26, Texas Tech 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston vs Texas Tech: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 55.0#5 | 34.0#57 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0#32 | 17.0#51 |
| Yards per play | 8.45#10 | 5.61#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.66#38 | 5.21#67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 308.5#8 | 175.5#74 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.0#45 | 234.0#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 38.5#1 | 83.0#13 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.5#96 | 258.0#115 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#40 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#29 | 1.00#57 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#39 | 2.50#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#15 | 2.50#106 |
| Stat | Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#49 | +0.09#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#63 | -0.05#37 |
| Success rate | 44.5%#56 | 45.6%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#88 | 32.7%#14 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#54 | 10.8%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8%#52 | 11.7%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 17.1%#27 | 14.3%#66 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#75 | 14.0%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90#90 | 4.77#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15#96 | 3.15#27 |
| Average starting field position | own 40#5 | own 32#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#18 | own 24#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#52 | 73.0#21 |
| Stat | Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#55 | +0.06#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#49 | +0.13#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#58 | -0.01#67 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#75 | -0.10#27 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.8%#26 | 45.6%#65 |
| Passing success rate | 54.3%#20 | 49.2%#42 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#44 | 15.9%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.3%#24 | 31.5%#71 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#89 | 28.8%#68 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 71.4%#1 | 46.4%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 17.9%#4 | 33.3%#51 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.6%#96 | 64.5%#68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.3%#109 | 45.9%#31 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston schedule · Texas Tech schedule · all Week 3 projections
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