Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico State 24.4, Sam Houston 22.3 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: New Mexico State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
New Mexico State is 2-4, scoring 23.7 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-2 per game). Sam Houston is 1-5, scoring 19.5 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-5 per game).
New Mexico State's below-average offense (117th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense) meets Sam Houston's below-average defense (115th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points New Mexico State puts up. New Mexico State's below-average defense (113th) should limit Sam Houston's struggling offense (134th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 25 and Sam Houston by 20 about 80% of the time.
Sam Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Mexico State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.9 points and the total by 7.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico State / Sam Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico State -3 | 46.5 | -162 / +132 |
| Opening line | New Mexico State -2.5 | 50.5 | -130 / +108 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico State -3 | 46.5 | -162 / +136 |
| FanDuel | New Mexico State -3.5 | 46.5 | -160 / +132 |
| BetRivers | New Mexico State -3 | 46.5 | -175 / +135 |
| BetMGM | New Mexico State -3 | 46.5 | -160 / +130 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sam Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico State -2 | 46.6 | 45% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico State -3 | 46.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico State -3 | 47.6 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sam Houston win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico State -2.1 · market New Mexico State -3 · difference +0.9 pts (Sam Houston view)
- Total
- model 46.6 · market 46.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico State 24.4, Sam Houston 22.3 | New Mexico State 55%right winner | 3.9 | 7.4 |
| New formula | New Mexico State 24.8, Sam Houston 21.6 | New Mexico State 58%right winner | 2.8 | 7.6 |
Final: New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.7#97 | 19.5#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7#89 | 24.5#77 |
| Yards per play | 6.12#63 | 5.51#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#56 | 5.31#49 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.2#90 | 114.2#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 231.3#62 | 242.0#54 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.7#55 | 213.8#130 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.3#84 | 129.8#2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#129 | 0.83#66 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#80 | 0.67#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#36 | 2.00#73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#71 | 2.50#111 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#93 | -0.09#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#69 | -0.07#21 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#92 | 40.5%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#66 | 39.3%#46 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#74 | 10.5%#120 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#81 | 12.3%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#62 | 16.6%#17 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#118 | 18.0%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60#110 | 2.98#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18#101 | 3.82#71 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#127 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#133 | own 29#70 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.2#94 | 64.7#78 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#54 | -0.14#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#113 | -0.05#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#56 | +0.08#94 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#80 | -0.25#3 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#87 | 38.2%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 37.7%#114 | 39.8%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#43 | 22.0%#131 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1%#52 | 28.9%#100 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#79 | 26.7%#34 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.3%#67 | 37.5%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4%#101 | 33.7%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.4%#110 | 55.4%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.6%#93 | 57.8%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico State schedule · Sam Houston schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.