Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tulsa 27.4, Sam Houston 23.4 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Tulsa wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 50.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Tulsa is 1-0, scoring 24 and allowing 10 points per game (+14 per game). Sam Houston is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 24 points per game (-3 per game).
Tulsa's struggling offense (120th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense) meets Sam Houston's struggling defense (126th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulsa puts up. Sam Houston's struggling offense (125th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20 points against an average defense) meets Tulsa's struggling defense (119th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sam Houston puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 27 and Sam Houston by 19 about 80% of the time.
Sam Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tulsa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2 points and the total by 10.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulsa / Sam Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulsa -12 | 52.75 → 51.75 | -550 / +402.5 |
| DraftKings | Tulsa -10.5 → Tulsa -12.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -500 / +380 |
| Bovada | Tulsa -13.5 → Tulsa -11.5 | 52 | -600 / +425 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sam Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulsa -4 | 50.8 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Tulsa -12 | 51.8 | 19% |
| Blended projection | Tulsa -11 | 52.4 | 23% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sam Houston win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 19% · difference +21 pts
- Margin
- model Tulsa -4 · market Tulsa -12 · difference +8.0 pts (Sam Houston view)
- Total
- model 50.8 · market 51.75 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 8.0 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulsa 27.4, Sam Houston 23.4 | Tulsa 60%right winner | 2.0 | 10.8 |
| New formula | Tulsa 24.1, Sam Houston 29.3 | Sam Houston 63%wrong winner | 11.3 | 13.4 |
Final: Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulsa vs Sam Houston: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tulsa | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.2#100 | 17.8#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.9#94 | 37.8#133 |
| Yards per play | 5.43#106 | 5.27#115 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48#44 | 7.11#134 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.9#35 | 149.2#90 |
| Net passing yards per game | 225.8#69 | 183.8#109 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.0#119 | 198.3#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.0#58 | 279.0#132 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#94 | 1.33#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#102 | 1.17#56 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#75 | 1.67#96 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92#84 | 3.00#125 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#100 | -0.12#129 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#66 | +0.06#100 |
| Success rate | 41.0%#93 | 38.1%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#66 | 47.3%#127 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#81 | 11.5%#96 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#49 | 15.9%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#100 | 12.0%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#97 | 16.0%#132 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.26#124 | 3.03#129 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86#68 | 3.94#76 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#115 | own 28#118 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#135 | own 32#116 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.9#1 | 63.2#108 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#70 | -0.04#104 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06#103 | -0.20#133 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#36 | -0.02#50 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#86 | +0.14#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8%#75 | 39.3%#107 |
| Passing success rate | 38.0%#104 | 34.7%#122 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0%#121 | 23.2%#131 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.8%#85 | 23.5%#132 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2%#92 | 33.9%#119 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#103 | 25.9%#136 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4%#109 | 48.3%#131 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.2%#97 | 41.1%#135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0%#96 | 59.2%#63 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulsa schedule · Sam Houston schedule · all Week 2 projections
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