Matchup analysis
Our model projects Delaware 26, Florida International 24 at Delaware Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Delaware wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 50.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Florida International is 3-4 against the 133rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+3.8 per game). Delaware is 4-4 against the 126th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Florida International's struggling offense (126th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.1 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's struggling defense (125th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida International puts up. Delaware's below-average offense (84th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Delaware puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 20 and Delaware by 25 about 80% of the time.
Delaware gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware by about 0.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Florida International vs Delaware: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida International | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1#122 | 29.1#66 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3#21 | 27.5#100 |
| Yards per play | 5.42#115 | 5.98#69 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93#21 | 6.10#100 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.4#115 | 129.1#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.3#50 | 259.9#34 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.0#40 | 143.0#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.4#15 | 266.9#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#111 | 1.14#107 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#61 | 0.86#70 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#73 | 2.57#27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#21 | 3.00#130 |
| Stat | Florida International | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#124 | +0.11#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#27 | +0.09#96 |
| Success rate | 39.5%#115 | 41.7%#88 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.1%#33 | 43.6%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#88 | 13.2%#59 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#77 | 13.1%#100 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#44 | 14.8%#50 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#61 | 15.2%#112 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.95#132 | 4.13#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.93#6 | 3.57#46 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#52 | own 32#37 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#123 | own 29#68 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.1#35 | 65.0#76 |
| Stat | Florida International | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#126 | +0.05#87 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | +0.15#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#40 | +0.07#85 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#33 | +0.11#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#124 | 42.1%#90 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#68 | 42.6%#62 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#102 | 19.5%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2%#57 | 32.0%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1%#27 | 32.0%#103 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#23 | 34.8%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.1%#3 | 37.4%#53 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.0%#137 | 55.7%#101 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 27.8%#1 | 67.5%#109 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida International schedule · Delaware schedule · all Week 11 projections
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