Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisiana Tech 35, Southern Miss 19 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Louisiana Tech wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.1 points and 54 combined points.
Southern Miss is 2-5 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-6.7 per game). Louisiana Tech is 5-2 against the 101st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 21 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) should limit Southern Miss's below-average offense (107th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Southern Miss's struggling defense (127th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 7 and Louisiana Tech by 38 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana Tech by about 13.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Southern Miss | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#92 | 32.3#47 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4#125 | 21.0#46 |
| Yards per play | 6.04#63 | 5.89#80 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97#91 | 5.39#55 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3#65 | 159.6#84 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.6#42 | 232.7#60 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 243.9#136 | 131.9#39 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.7#72 | 210.0#78 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.57#133 | 1.00#90 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#73 | 1.86#6 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#29 | 2.57#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#72 | 2.29#103 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#95 | +0.11#57 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#73 | -0.11#9 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#92 | 44.0%#59 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#92 | 35.8%#20 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#52 | 13.6%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#101 | 13.0%#96 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#114 | 18.0%#7 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#48 | 15.0%#109 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73#98 | 3.74#97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.92#83 | 3.43#35 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#118 | own 35#4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#84 | own 29#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#27 | 66.6#66 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#27 | +0.03#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06#123 | +0.18#38 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#72 | -0.08#16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#79 | -0.14#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.6%#34 | 40.4%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 36.6%#117 | 46.6%#33 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.1%#3 | 18.4%#91 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.9%#134 | 36.7%#23 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#89 | 26.9%#34 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.5%#131 | 46.9%#28 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9%#93 | 39.8%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.4%#72 | 70.3%#33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2%#56 | 38.6%#5 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Miss schedule · Louisiana Tech schedule · all Week 11 projections
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