Matchup analysis
Our model projects Utah State 26, San Diego State 24 at Snapdragon Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Utah State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 50.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Utah State is 2-5 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 23 points per game (-8.1 per game). San Diego State is 3-5 against the 69th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 36.1 points per game (-9.6 per game).
Utah State's below-average offense (109th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets San Diego State's below-average defense (113th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah State puts up. Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) should limit San Diego State's below-average offense (97th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 24 and San Diego State by 21 about 80% of the time.
San Diego State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Utah State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Utah State vs San Diego State: stat comparison
| Stat | Utah State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.9#137 | 26.5#86 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#59 | 36.1#133 |
| Yards per play | 5.21#124 | 5.64#101 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.00#25 | 6.07#97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.1#116 | 154.6#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.9#99 | 189.5#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.6#59 | 190.8#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 203.0#61 | 276.8#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.57#132 | 1.00#86 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#95 | 0.75#85 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#83 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#129 | 1.25#30 |
| Stat | Utah State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#136 | -0.00#115 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#26 | +0.12#110 |
| Success rate | 35.2%#134 | 37.1%#128 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3%#63 | 49.3%#135 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#106 | 11.4%#103 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.7%#5 | 11.0%#49 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#118 | 10.8%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.3%#134 | 14.5%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.50#138 | 4.07#73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.20#18 | 4.37#111 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#46 | own 30#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#37 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#96 | 61.0#115 |
| Stat | Utah State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#131 | +0.03#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#128 | -0.04#118 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#45 | +0.10#102 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#27 | +0.16#104 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.8%#133 | 39.2%#112 |
| Passing success rate | 34.8%#126 | 34.6%#127 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#127 | 20.0%#114 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8%#94 | 26.4%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#38 | 37.2%#127 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4%#113 | 33.7%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7%#106 | 47.1%#128 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.4%#133 | 65.4%#51 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.1%#9 | 68.6%#114 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah State schedule · San Diego State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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