Matchup analysis
Our model projects Temple 29, UAB 25 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11. That is a lean: Temple wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 53.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UAB is 4-3 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-1.3 per game). Temple is 2-5 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 28 points per game (-2.3 per game).
UAB's struggling offense (119th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense) meets Temple's struggling defense (122nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UAB puts up. Temple's below-average offense (104th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UAB's struggling defense (120th); that mismatch is where most of Temple's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAB by 19 and Temple by 26 about 80% of the time.
Temple gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Temple by about 1.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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UAB vs Temple: stat comparison
| Stat | UAB | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3#103 | 25.7#91 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6#73 | 28.0#104 |
| Yards per play | 5.39#119 | 6.61#30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28#46 | 6.28#114 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.7#50 | 208.4#27 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.3#124 | 175.7#118 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.3#123 | 163.0#87 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 132.1#1 | 248.1#117 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#52 | 0.57#33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#79 | 0.57#113 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#63 | 1.29#114 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#120 | 2.14#92 |
| Stat | UAB | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#79 | +0.17#35 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#60 | +0.18#126 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#75 | 43.3%#65 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#95 | 45.6%#125 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#118 | 15.4%#18 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#20 | 14.3%#122 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#105 | 9.5%#138 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0%#110 | 10.4%#16 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53#111 | 3.60#107 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.98#87 | 4.50#118 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#55 | own 27#123 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#90 | own 30#91 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9#70 | 58.1#130 |
| Stat | UAB | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#28 | +0.17#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#117 | +0.17#42 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#82 | +0.12#111 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#34 | +0.26#128 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.2%#49 | 46.1%#50 |
| Passing success rate | 36.1%#119 | 39.5%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.2%#75 | 16.4%#57 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9%#44 | 31.2%#71 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#46 | 39.9%#135 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#45 | 42.7%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4%#104 | 50.6%#135 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.4%#134 | 52.5%#116 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.6%#124 | 62.5%#86 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAB schedule · Temple schedule · all Week 11 projections
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