Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Michigan 35, Akron 17 at InfoCision Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Western Michigan wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.3 points and 52 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Western Michigan is 5-3 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+6.2 per game). Akron is 1-7 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19 and allowing 32.8 points per game (-13.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Akron's struggling defense (132nd). Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) should limit Akron's struggling offense (128th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Michigan by 40 and Akron by 5 about 80% of the time.
Akron gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Michigan is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Western Michigan vs Akron: stat comparison
| Stat | Western Michigan | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#85 | 19.0#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.4#37 | 32.8#126 |
| Yards per play | 5.60#108 | 5.61#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.30#48 | 7.01#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.4#59 | 157.0#89 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.4#127 | 206.8#87 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.0#83 | 189.0#110 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.0#65 | 237.8#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#28 | 1.38#128 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#108 | 0.63#105 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#48 | 0.38#138 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#43 | 2.88#126 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#63 | +0.03#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#67 | +0.15#120 |
| Success rate | 44.1%#56 | 41.7%#90 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#87 | 44.3%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#99 | 14.8%#25 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#38 | 14.5%#127 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#89 | 12.3%#111 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#24 | 16.0%#126 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.45#40 | 3.90#90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61#49 | 3.90#80 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#67 | own 25#134 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#34 | own 32#126 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.6#123 | 64.9#78 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#49 | +0.11#53 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#84 | -0.02#114 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#55 | +0.11#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#88 | +0.17#109 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1%#83 | 46.8%#42 |
| Passing success rate | 41.1%#75 | 35.7%#122 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.4%#27 | 14.3%#25 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.6%#63 | 28.5%#101 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5%#116 | 32.8%#108 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.4%#69 | 44.3%#41 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#76 | 39.4%#80 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.1%#31 | 65.7%#46 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#91 | 51.1%#37 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Michigan schedule · Akron schedule · all Week 11 projections
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