Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisville 29, North Carolina 24 at Kenan Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Louisville wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Louisville is 4-3 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.7 and allowing 27.4 points per game (+11.3 per game). North Carolina is 4-3 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+3.5 per game).
Louisville's strong offense (20th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th); that mismatch is where most of Louisville's projected points come from. Expect North Carolina to find it hard going: Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) outranks North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisville by 27 and North Carolina by 18 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisville is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Louisville vs North Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Louisville | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.7#11 | 24.4#97 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#99 | 20.9#43 |
| Yards per play | 7.85#1 | 5.82#88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68#73 | 5.23#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.6#13 | 126.0#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 257.9#37 | 215.6#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#88 | 169.9#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 257.3#125 | 211.1#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#38 | 1.00#91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#25 | 1.00#58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#44 | 2.00#71 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#84 | 2.14#95 |
| Stat | Louisville | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.29#4 | +0.03#101 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#102 | +0.04#69 |
| Success rate | 48.9%#19 | 45.6%#42 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#81 | 43.0%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5%#1 | 11.6%#98 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#46 | 7.3%#4 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#72 | 11.2%#126 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#122 | 12.4%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.74#25 | 4.59#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#62 | 3.38#30 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 30#64 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#64 | own 31#116 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.9#109 | 58.7#129 |
| Stat | Louisville | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27#2 | +0.02#100 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#12 | +0.04#91 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#67 | +0.06#81 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#110 | +0.03#64 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.8%#23 | 44.7%#67 |
| Passing success rate | 49.0%#20 | 46.3%#35 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.9%#129 | 16.4%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6%#41 | 31.4%#68 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#112 | 23.6%#8 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0%#36 | 44.0%#47 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.0%#34 | 42.7%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#13 | 65.2%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1%#28 | 50.0%#34 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisville schedule · North Carolina schedule · all Week 11 projections
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