Matchup analysis
Our model projects Toledo 37, Massachusetts 18 at Glass Bowl in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Toledo wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.6 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Massachusetts is 4-4 against the 138th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+5.4 per game). Toledo is 6-2 against the 122nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 25.4 points per game (+12 per game).
Expect Massachusetts to find it hard going: Toledo's below-average defense (87th) outranks Massachusetts's struggling offense (132nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17 points against an average defense). Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Massachusetts's struggling defense (124th); that mismatch is where most of Toledo's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Massachusetts by 4 and Toledo by 41 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Toledo by about 16.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Massachusetts vs Toledo: stat comparison
| Stat | Massachusetts | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5#87 | 37.4#16 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#49 | 25.4#85 |
| Yards per play | 5.88#81 | 6.74#21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.06#30 | 4.96#22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.8#87 | 192.0#41 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.0#112 | 284.1#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.1#70 | 148.0#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.8#26 | 193.1#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38#14 | 0.50#27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#31 | 1.13#44 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#35 | 2.75#18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#50 | 0.75#7 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#86 | +0.13#47 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#29 | -0.04#32 |
| Success rate | 41.8%#86 | 43.5%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#51 | 35.4%#17 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#89 | 14.2%#33 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#37 | 10.7%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#38 | 15.2%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#50 | 12.0%#40 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#80 | 3.93#88 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69#54 | 3.73#61 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#49 | own 33#12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#99 | own 31#103 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1#131 | 70.6#18 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#85 | +0.07#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#87 | +0.18#40 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#71 | -0.06#25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#12 | -0.01#43 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5%#78 | 43.7%#75 |
| Passing success rate | 40.0%#88 | 46.9%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#46 | 16.8%#69 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7%#98 | 30.1%#87 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#26 | 26.9%#35 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3%#123 | 44.3%#42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6%#57 | 35.2%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.5%#89 | 64.4%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.4%#84 | 59.1%#73 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Massachusetts schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 11 projections
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