Matchup analysis
Our model projects Air Force 30, San José State 20 at Falcon Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Air Force wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 50.4 combined points.
San José State is 4-4 against the 121st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.1 per game). Air Force is 5-2 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+7.5 per game).
Air Force's below-average defense (88th) should limit San José State's struggling offense (121st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against San José State's below-average defense (100th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 12 and Air Force by 33 about 80% of the time.
Air Force gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Air Force by about 8.3. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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San José State vs Air Force: stat comparison
| Stat | San José State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.4#118 | 28.4#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5#56 | 20.9#42 |
| Yards per play | 5.52#110 | 5.68#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.36#52 | 6.06#96 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.8#108 | 341.1#1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.0#76 | 68.7#138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.8#89 | 141.3#52 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.8#96 | 174.0#21 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#73 | 0.57#35 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#42 | 0.86#71 |
| Sacks per game | 3.63#4 | 1.29#115 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25#97 | 0.71#6 |
| Stat | San José State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#128 | +0.18#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#55 | +0.06#77 |
| Success rate | 37.1%#130 | 48.5%#22 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#75 | 40.8%#69 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#101 | 11.1%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#47 | 11.5%#67 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#42 | 12.8%#101 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#118 | 8.0%#1 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#101 | 4.64#31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.19#17 | 4.07#97 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#102 | own 30#63 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#100 | own 29#69 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1#74 | 72.1#9 |
| Stat | San José State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#130 | +0.22#7 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#105 | +0.17#43 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#69 | +0.05#77 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#48 | +0.08#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.5%#135 | 52.2%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 40.2%#85 | 35.7%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#96 | 9.7%#1 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.4%#136 | 29.6%#99 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5%#55 | 28.7%#59 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2%#133 | 55.4%#6 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.7%#59 | 38.2%#63 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#110 | 65.1%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.9%#44 | 57.9%#61 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San José State schedule · Air Force schedule · all Week 11 projections
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