Matchup analysis
Our model projects Penn State 25, Minnesota 19 at Beaver Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Penn State wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 43.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Minnesota is 5-2 against the 75th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+6.5 per game). Penn State is 3-4 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.8 per game).
Penn State's strong defense (35th) should limit Minnesota's below-average offense (92nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense). Expect Penn State to find it hard going: Minnesota's strong defense (37th) outranks Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Minnesota by 16 and Penn State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Penn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Penn State by about 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Minnesota vs Penn State: stat comparison
| Stat | Minnesota | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#83 | 28.7#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1#35 | 18.9#28 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#117 | 5.91#79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.82#16 | 5.58#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 107.0#135 | 133.4#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 230.7#64 | 259.0#36 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.4#41 | 178.1#99 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 146.0#6 | 150.4#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#82 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#21 | 1.00#53 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#57 | 1.29#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#10 | 1.57#53 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#130 | +0.01#107 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#19 | -0.01#41 |
| Success rate | 39.8%#113 | 40.1%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#48 | 40.1%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#91 | 11.2%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#48 | 12.9%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 17.7%#10 | 16.0%#23 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#79 | 13.5%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57#108 | 4.22#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#117 | 3.72#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#5 | own 32#29 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#15 | own 26#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4#103 | 66.4#68 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#137 | -0.11#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#104 | +0.12#58 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#79 | +0.12#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#7 | -0.14#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8%#128 | 37.2%#126 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#74 | 42.7%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.9%#134 | 15.7%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.2%#137 | 30.6%#77 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#96 | 27.6%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4%#112 | 35.8%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.1%#8 | 32.2%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.9%#82 | 57.7%#96 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.4%#98 | 68.4%#113 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Minnesota schedule · Penn State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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