Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buffalo 28, Ball State 26 at Scheumann Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Buffalo wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Buffalo is 5-3 against the 123rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.8 per game). Ball State is 3-5 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22 and allowing 35.3 points per game (-13.3 per game).
Buffalo's struggling offense (122nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) meets Ball State's struggling defense (133rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buffalo puts up. Ball State's struggling offense (120th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.4 points against an average defense) meets Buffalo's struggling defense (119th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ball State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 24 and Ball State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Ball State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Buffalo is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Buffalo vs Ball State: stat comparison
| Stat | Buffalo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.6#107 | 22.0#108 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#84 | 35.3#131 |
| Yards per play | 4.68#137 | 5.42#114 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#85 | 6.62#129 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.6#42 | 148.0#100 |
| Net passing yards per game | 149.0#130 | 195.3#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.0#81 | 189.5#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.4#99 | 239.1#110 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#100 | 1.00#94 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#122 | 0.63#106 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#107 | 1.75#92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38#105 | 1.75#65 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#127 | +0.08#72 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#81 | +0.11#106 |
| Success rate | 36.9%#131 | 40.5%#103 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#54 | 42.5%#86 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4%#133 | 10.4%#126 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#80 | 13.4%#105 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#84 | 13.8%#70 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#72 | 13.4%#73 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#100 | 4.17#61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.84#73 | 4.72#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#58 | own 28#110 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#79 | own 28#55 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.8#8 | 63.4#93 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#107 | +0.02#102 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#127 | +0.14#50 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#68 | +0.01#59 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#89 | +0.22#121 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#120 | 39.4%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0%#130 | 40.8%#80 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#53 | 19.9%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4%#129 | 30.3%#85 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#12 | 34.4%#120 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6%#87 | 35.6%#111 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#42 | 44.2%#119 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#124 | 70.6%#32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.5%#99 | 80.0%#134 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Buffalo schedule · Ball State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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