Matchup analysis
Our model projects App State 28, Marshall 27 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: App State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
App State is 5-2 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.1 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+7 per game). Marshall is 4-3 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.7 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-9 per game).
App State's below-average offense (101st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Marshall's below-average defense (118th); that mismatch is where most of App State's projected points come from. Marshall's below-average offense (108th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets App State's below-average defense (105th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Marshall puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between App State by 23 and Marshall by 22 about 80% of the time.
Marshall gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. App State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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App State vs Marshall: stat comparison
| Stat | App State | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.1#59 | 21.7#109 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1#61 | 30.7#117 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#70 | 5.93#78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.24#43 | 6.65#130 |
| Rushing yards per game | 153.4#96 | 165.1#74 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.3#35 | 237.0#56 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.0#48 | 197.7#118 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.6#97 | 248.0#116 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#37 | 1.14#113 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#9 | 0.71#99 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#116 | 0.86#136 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#54 | 1.86#77 |
| Stat | App State | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#69 | +0.08#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#54 | +0.11#103 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#81 | 44.1%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#90 | 43.3%#98 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#30 | 12.4%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#50 | 13.3%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#60 | 11.5%#121 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#77 | 14.1%#97 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#69 | 3.20#127 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#60 | 3.80#68 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#35 | own 29#92 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#49 | own 29#81 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#37 | 67.9#51 |
| Stat | App State | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#113 | +0.13#38 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#46 | +0.04#90 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#93 | -0.01#53 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#36 | +0.21#120 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#123 | 48.1%#30 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#43 | 41.6%#69 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#101 | 18.0%#84 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5%#50 | 30.4%#81 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#47 | 30.2%#74 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5%#93 | 41.1%#70 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#33 | 38.8%#72 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.2%#11 | 49.9%#120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#87 | 58.0%#64 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: App State schedule · Marshall schedule · all Week 11 projections
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