Matchup analysis
Our model projects Central Michigan 31, Sacramento State 15 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Central Michigan wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.3 points and 45.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Sacramento State is 1-7 against the 136th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 32.9 points per game (-17.6 per game). Central Michigan is 3-5 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-8 per game).
Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th) should limit Sacramento State's struggling offense (139th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 12.9 points against an average defense). Central Michigan's struggling offense (127th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18 points against an average defense) meets Sacramento State's struggling defense (139th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Central Michigan puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 7 and Central Michigan by 38 about 80% of the time.
Central Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Michigan by about 13.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Sacramento State vs Central Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | Sacramento State | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.3#134 | 17.9#132 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.9#127 | 25.9#89 |
| Yards per play | 4.98#132 | 5.07#131 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23#112 | 5.89#86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5#129 | 182.5#55 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.6#98 | 116.5#134 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.1#104 | 188.5#109 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.8#48 | 184.3#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#101 | 0.88#74 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#104 | 1.13#43 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13#130 | 2.00#74 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13#88 | 2.25#98 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#134 | -0.01#116 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#76 | +0.05#70 |
| Success rate | 38.8%#120 | 38.9%#119 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#79 | 46.6%#129 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.4%#135 | 6.5%#138 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2%#120 | 11.8%#72 |
| Havoc rate | 10.5%#134 | 11.3%#125 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#121 | 13.1%#64 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.88#134 | 3.44#115 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.22#105 | 4.35#110 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#97 | own 28#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#71 | own 31#117 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.9#90 | 59.0#127 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#118 | +0.16#25 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12#131 | -0.27#138 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#84 | +0.17#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#76 | -0.10#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6%#107 | 47.5%#36 |
| Passing success rate | 35.4%#123 | 25.2%#138 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0%#130 | 12.5%#9 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.7%#127 | 23.6%#131 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.4%#32 | 34.2%#118 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.1%#130 | 37.1%#99 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9%#92 | 50.5%#134 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 33.4%#138 | 61.5%#71 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.7%#111 | 75.9%#133 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacramento State schedule · Central Michigan schedule · all Week 11 projections
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