Matchup analysis
Our model projects Virginia Tech 36, Stanford 18 at Lane Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Virginia Tech wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.7 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Stanford is 4-4 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-15.6 per game). Virginia Tech is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+14.5 per game).
Expect Stanford to find it hard going: Virginia Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (50th) outranks Stanford's below-average offense (105th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Virginia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Stanford's below-average defense (115th); that mismatch is where most of Virginia Tech's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stanford by 5 and Virginia Tech by 40 about 80% of the time.
Virginia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia Tech by about 15.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Stanford vs Virginia Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Stanford | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.9#124 | 35.0#34 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5#132 | 20.5#38 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#103 | 5.94#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52#125 | 4.84#17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0#122 | 159.0#85 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.3#55 | 267.4#27 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1#117 | 104.4#7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.8#120 | 183.9#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#41 | 0.50#24 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#101 | 0.50#121 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88#134 | 3.25#7 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#57 | 2.88#125 |
| Stat | Stanford | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#82 | +0.09#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#130 | +0.06#75 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#111 | 45.6%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.0%#130 | 39.4%#43 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#90 | 13.6%#48 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1%#130 | 13.1%#99 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#127 | 18.0%#6 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#31 | 13.3%#70 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.81#92 | 4.35#47 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.50#138 | 3.44#36 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 32#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#96 | own 29#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#79 | 71.8#10 |
| Stat | Stanford | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#119 | +0.02#99 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#52 | +0.14#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#132 | -0.02#42 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#123 | +0.11#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2%#105 | 45.1%#59 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#93 | 44.5%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#94 | 20.8%#121 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#126 | 36.2%#27 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.4%#131 | 26.2%#28 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.2%#106 | 40.4%#75 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.0%#130 | 31.1%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#80 | 60.2%#78 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.9%#137 | 58.6%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stanford schedule · Virginia Tech schedule · all Week 11 projections
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