Matchup analysis
Our model projects Notre Dame 42, Boston College 9 at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.2 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Boston College is 4-3 against the 61st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game). Notre Dame (No. 5) is 6-1 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.1 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+27.7 per game).
Notre Dame's elite defense (3rd) should limit Boston College's below-average offense (96th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) against Boston College's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 11 and Notre Dame by 56 about 80% of the time.
Notre Dame gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Notre Dame by about 31.1. The game is on NBC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Boston College vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
| Stat | Boston College | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#96 | 41.1#6 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6#63 | 13.4#5 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#57 | 6.54#32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.29#47 | 4.72#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.6#36 | 185.3#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.6#101 | 261.3#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.9#90 | 82.9#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.4#25 | 170.4#18 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#127 | 0.14#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#17 | 1.43#15 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#53 | 2.14#60 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#110 | 0.29#1 |
| Stat | Boston College | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#104 | +0.22#13 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#42 | -0.09#14 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#84 | 50.9%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#62 | 34.2%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#31 | 11.3%#105 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#11 | 6.6%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#43 | 16.3%#19 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.4%#130 | 10.2%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#118 | 5.08#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#42 | 4.40#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#70 | own 32#39 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#118 | own 26#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7#91 | 68.3#44 |
| Stat | Boston College | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#41 | +0.09#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#130 | +0.36#7 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#48 | -0.06#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#46 | -0.12#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8%#33 | 51.0%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 34.3%#129 | 50.8%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#123 | 14.3%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#103 | 30.0%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4%#99 | 26.2%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.2%#78 | 44.0%#46 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#44 | 42.9%#109 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.3%#115 | 66.7%#43 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.8%#54 | 66.7%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boston College schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 11 projections
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