Matchup analysis
Our model projects Clemson 29, Georgia Tech 21 at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Clemson wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 49.8 combined points.
Georgia Tech is 2-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-3.6 per game). Clemson is 4-3 against the 24th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.4 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+0.1 per game).
Expect Georgia Tech to find it hard going: Clemson's strong defense (30th) outranks Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense). Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Georgia Tech's below-average defense (89th); that mismatch is where most of Clemson's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Tech by 14 and Clemson by 31 about 80% of the time.
Clemson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Clemson by about 6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Georgia Tech vs Clemson: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.7#82 | 21.4#112 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3#114 | 21.3#52 |
| Yards per play | 6.50#34 | 5.24#123 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#98 | 4.80#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.1#104 | 162.3#80 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.4#40 | 189.7#107 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.7#131 | 144.9#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#40 | 171.0#20 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#103 | 1.14#108 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#135 | 0.57#116 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#96 | 2.86#16 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#100 | 3.00#131 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#50 | -0.07#132 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#132 | -0.06#24 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#49 | 37.1%#129 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#119 | 40.6%#66 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#11 | 10.6%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#109 | 10.3%#31 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#124 | 17.0%#13 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#107 | 15.2%#113 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.93#87 | 3.23#126 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#96 | 3.17#16 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#98 | own 32#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#113 | own 26#18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4#113 | 67.1#59 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#32 | +0.04#91 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#65 | -0.16#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#129 | +0.05#80 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#131 | -0.15#11 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8%#63 | 38.3%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 44.8%#47 | 36.0%#120 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#100 | 19.0%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#79 | 30.1%#86 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.9%#134 | 35.9%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.0%#114 | 32.3%#129 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.7%#121 | 33.3%#24 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.0%#117 | 40.9%#135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6%#38 | 58.8%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Tech schedule · Clemson schedule · all Week 11 projections
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