Matchup analysis
Our model projects BYU 35, Arizona State 18 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: BYU wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Arizona State is 4-3 against the 37th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.9 and allowing 29.9 points per game (+1 per game). BYU (No. 8) is 6-1 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+14.5 per game).
BYU's strong defense (15th) should limit Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: BYU's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona State by 6 and BYU by 40 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour BYU by about 14.9. The game is on Fox.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arizona State / BYU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +535 / -765 |
| DraftKings | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +525 / -750 |
| FanDuel | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +530 / -780 |
| BetRivers | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +540 / -835 |
| Hard Rock Bet | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +550 / -850 |
| theScore Bet | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +600 / -1000 |
| BetMGM | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | +550 / -750 |
| Pinnacle | BYU -16 | 49 | +502 / -725 |
| Bovada | BYU -16 | 48.5 | +500 / -750 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | BYU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | BYU -17 | 53.6 | 87% |
| Market consensus | BYU -16.5 | 48.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | BYU -16.5 | 49.7 | 87% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- BYU win probability
- model 87% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model BYU -17 · market BYU -16.5 · difference +0.5 pts (BYU view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 48.5 · difference +5.1
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies BYU 87%.
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward BYU than the market.
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Arizona State vs BYU: stat comparison
| Stat | Arizona State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9#56 | 33.1#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9#110 | 18.6#26 |
| Yards per play | 6.37#44 | 6.71#23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#58 | 4.87#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6#75 | 197.6#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.3#24 | 223.1#70 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.0#74 | 110.7#13 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.6#63 | 204.6#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#81 | 0.57#30 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#125 | 0.86#68 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#68 | 1.71#95 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#119 | 0.57#5 |
| Stat | Arizona State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#111 | +0.16#38 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#65 | +0.01#48 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#80 | 48.6%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#52 | 38.3%#34 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3%#19 | 13.1%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#55 | 9.1%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#54 | 14.5%#63 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8%#132 | 9.8%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#55 | 5.02#10 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.56#44 | 3.94#84 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#79 | own 30#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#131 | own 29#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#46 | 62.7#100 |
| Stat | Arizona State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#115 | +0.11#51 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#94 | +0.22#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#78 | +0.04#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#56 | -0.02#39 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1%#98 | 49.3%#17 |
| Passing success rate | 42.8%#60 | 47.8%#26 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#93 | 15.8%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9%#39 | 31.4%#64 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#42 | 30.7%#79 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2%#132 | 55.8%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0%#51 | 42.0%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#54 | 76.7%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#42 | 66.7%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona State schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 9 projections
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