Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Notre Dame 36, North Carolina 12.3 at Kenan Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.7 points and 48.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Notre Dame (No. 3) is 4-0, scoring 42.3 and allowing 8.3 points per game (+34 per game). North Carolina is 2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+9.6 per game).
Notre Dame's elite offense (5th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over North Carolina's strong defense (33rd); that mismatch is where most of Notre Dame's projected points come from. Expect North Carolina to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (1st) outranks North Carolina's below-average offense (87th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 46 and Notre Dame by 1 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Notre Dame is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.7 points and the total by 14.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Notre Dame / North Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -22.5 → Notre Dame -21 | 51.75 → 46.5 | -1800 / +925 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -23.5 → Notre Dame -21 | 55.5 → 46.5 | -1800 / +1000 |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -21.5 → Notre Dame -21 | 48 → 46.5 | -1800 / +850 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -23.5 | 48.3 | 6% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -21 | 46.5 | 9% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -21.5 | 47.7 | 7% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina win probability
- model 6% · market (no-vig) 9% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -23.7 · market Notre Dame -21 · difference -2.7 pts (North Carolina view)
- Total
- model 48.3 · market 46.5 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Notre Dame than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Notre Dame 36.0, North Carolina 12.3 | Notre Dame 94%right winner | 12.7 | 14.7 |
| New formula | Notre Dame 34.4, North Carolina 10.7 | Notre Dame 94%right winner | 12.8 | 17.9 |
Final: Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.3#17 | 23.3#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 8.3#2 | 13.7#20 |
| Yards per play | 6.69#47 | 6.16#74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.13#5 | 4.78#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.8#107 | 164.3#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 274.3#33 | 199.3#99 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 77.0#3 | 148.0#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 144.8#10 | 167.7#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#17 | 0.67#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#58 | 1.00#66 |
| Sacks per game | 3.25#14 | 3.33#11 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#4 | 2.33#105 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#35 | +0.07#81 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.18#2 | +0.02#64 |
| Success rate | 53.3%#5 | 49.7%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 30.9%#3 | 39.2%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#43 | 14.9%#31 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.9%#2 | 6.6%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 19.4%#4 | 13.3%#87 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#23 | 11.2%#31 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.16#10 | 4.53#42 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.85#8 | 2.93#13 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#82 | own 31#52 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#55 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5#100 | 59.0#124 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#115 | +0.17#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.41#7 | -0.02#106 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#31 | +0.11#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.30#2 | -0.06#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.0%#8 | 57.9%#4 |
| Passing success rate | 55.2%#11 | 42.4%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#48 | 12.8%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8%#114 | 40.4%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 20.6%#6 | 22.4%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.5%#74 | 38.2%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#73 | 43.5%#110 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.4%#32 | 54.5%#103 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.3%#5 | 28.6%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Notre Dame schedule · North Carolina schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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