Matchup analysis
Our model projects Notre Dame 31, Miami 29 at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Notre Dame wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 59.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Miami (No. 1) is 7-0 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 49 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+33.7 per game). Notre Dame (No. 5) is 6-1 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.1 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+27.7 per game).
Miami's elite offense (1st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43 points against an average defense) meets Notre Dame's elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Miami puts up. Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) meets Miami's elite defense (4th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Notre Dame puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 20 and Notre Dame by 25 about 80% of the time.
Notre Dame gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Notre Dame by about 0.4. The game is on NBC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami / Notre Dame) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -6.5 | 54.5 | +195 / -238 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -6.5 | 54.5 | +195 / -238 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Notre Dame win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -2.5 | 59.7 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -6.5 | 54.5 | 68% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -6 | 55.2 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Notre Dame win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -2.5 · market Notre Dame -6.5 · difference -4.0 pts (Notre Dame view)
- Total
- model 59.7 · market 54.5 · difference +5.2
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Miami than the market.
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Miami vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
| Stat | Miami | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 49.0#1 | 41.1#6 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#11 | 13.4#5 |
| Yards per play | 7.83#2 | 6.54#32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.02#26 | 4.72#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.0#20 | 185.3#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.7#5 | 261.3#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 72.6#1 | 82.9#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.9#101 | 170.4#18 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#12 | 0.14#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#115 | 1.43#15 |
| Sacks per game | 2.71#20 | 2.14#60 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#37 | 0.29#1 |
| Stat | Miami | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.31#2 | +0.22#13 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#36 | -0.09#14 |
| Success rate | 53.1%#2 | 50.9%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3%#27 | 34.2%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.4%#8 | 11.3%#105 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#51 | 6.6%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 12.3%#110 | 16.3%#19 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.4%#3 | 10.2%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.21#3 | 5.08#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94#7 | 4.40#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#68 | own 32#39 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#48 | own 26#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#28 | 68.3#44 |
| Stat | Miami | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#48 | +0.09#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.50#2 | +0.36#7 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.24#1 | -0.06#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#90 | -0.12#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3%#38 | 51.0%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 59.2%#1 | 50.8%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.5%#2 | 14.3%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.0%#9 | 30.0%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#82 | 26.2%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.9%#10 | 44.0%#46 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4%#29 | 42.9%#109 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.9%#18 | 66.7%#43 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.1%#12 | 66.7%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 10 projections
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