Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Notre Dame 48.8, Stanford 6.5 at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 42.3 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Stanford is 2-3, scoring 17.4 and allowing 38.2 points per game (-20.8 per game). Notre Dame (No. 3) is 5-0, scoring 41.2 and allowing 11.8 points per game (+29.4 per game).
Expect Stanford to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (2nd) outranks Stanford's below-average offense (116th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Notre Dame's elite offense (4th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 42 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Stanford's struggling defense (126th); that mismatch is where most of Notre Dame's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 20 and Notre Dame by 65 about 80% of the time.
Notre Dame gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Notre Dame by about 40.2. The game is on NBC.
Result: Stanford 7, Notre Dame 58. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.7 points and the total by 9.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stanford / Notre Dame) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -38.25 → Notre Dame -40 | 54 → 55.25 | — / — |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -38 → Notre Dame -39.5 | 54.5 → 55 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -38.5 → Notre Dame -40.5 | 53.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Notre Dame win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -42.5 | 55.2 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -40 | 55.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -40.5 | 55.6 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Notre Dame win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -42.3 · market Notre Dame -40 · difference +2.3 pts (Notre Dame view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 55.25 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Notre Dame than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stanford 6.5, Notre Dame 48.8 | Notre Dame 100%right winner | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| New formula | Stanford 4.3, Notre Dame 51.3 | Notre Dame 100%right winner | 4.0 | 9.4 |
Final: Stanford 7, Notre Dame 58. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stanford vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Stanford | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.4#131 | 41.2#16 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.2#133 | 11.8#7 |
| Yards per play | 5.13#126 | 6.61#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66#123 | 4.46#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 108.2#134 | 163.2#76 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.4#64 | 266.2#37 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.0#95 | 78.4#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 292.4#136 | 158.8#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40#20 | 0.20#8 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#55 | 1.20#37 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#124 | 2.80#28 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#88 | 0.40#3 |
| Stat | Stanford | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#74 | +0.22#17 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.23#130 | -0.13#6 |
| Success rate | 39.1%#115 | 55.0%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0%#134 | 31.9%#3 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#119 | 12.2%#87 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 17.0%#137 | 6.3%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#122 | 18.4%#5 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#57 | 9.9%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.26#121 | 5.14#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.63#138 | 3.53#47 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#131 | own 31#51 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#96 | own 27#40 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6#63 | 65.0#74 |
| Stat | Stanford | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#119 | +0.04#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#43 | +0.43#6 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19#128 | -0.06#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#125 | -0.19#11 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.6%#95 | 54.5%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1%#114 | 55.6%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#116 | 13.3%#22 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3%#117 | 25.5%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 41.3%#133 | 23.7%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.2%#114 | 40.4%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.8%#132 | 40.3%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#117 | 70.8%#29 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 82.6%#129 | 50.0%#37 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stanford schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.