Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UAB 26.4, Navy 24.1 at Protective Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: UAB wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Navy is 1-1, scoring 36 and allowing 26.5 points per game (+9.5 per game). UAB is 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UAB's struggling defense (119th); that mismatch is where most of Navy's projected points come from. Expect UAB to find it hard going: Navy's below-average defense (89th) outranks UAB's struggling offense (121st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Navy by 20 and UAB by 25 about 80% of the time.
UAB gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAB by about 0.2. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Navy 20, UAB 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 6.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Navy / UAB) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Navy -9.25 → Navy -6.5 | 52.5 → 50.25 | -267.5 / +220 |
| Bovada | Navy -7 → Navy -6.5 | 51.5 → 50 | -285 / +235 |
| DraftKings | Navy -11.5 → Navy -6.5 | 53.5 → 50.5 | -250 / +205 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UAB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UAB -2.5 | 50.4 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Navy -6.5 | 50.3 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Navy -5 | 51.0 | 36% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UAB win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference +26 pts
- Margin
- model UAB -2.3 · market Navy -6.5 · difference +8.8 pts (UAB view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 50.25 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 8.8 pts more toward UAB than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Navy 24.1, UAB 26.4 | UAB 56%right winner | 1.7 | 6.4 |
| New formula | Navy 29.5, UAB 24.3 | Navy 63%wrong winner | 9.2 | 9.8 |
Final: Navy 20, UAB 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Navy vs UAB: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Navy | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#49 | 21.0#117 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5#102 | 27.7#107 |
| Yards per play | 6.75#43 | 5.52#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.30#113 | 5.33#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 370.5#2 | 194.3#49 |
| Net passing yards per game | 82.0#136 | 175.3#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 89.0#12 | 197.3#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 273.5#127 | 113.7#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#42 | 1.00#94 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#135 | 0.33#126 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#16 | 1.33#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#46 | 2.33#108 |
| Stat | Navy | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#51 | +0.09#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#108 | +0.04#75 |
| Success rate | 44.9%#50 | 42.7%#81 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#89 | 42.1%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#87 | 9.9%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#96 | 9.8%#35 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#72 | 11.3%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#98 | 13.8%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.53#48 | 3.56#115 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#64 | 3.99#75 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#99 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#129 | own 33#125 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#59 | 67.0#60 |
| Stat | Navy | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.26#7 | +0.18#22 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08#114 | -0.02#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#40 | +0.05#88 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#120 | 0.00#63 |
| Rushing success rate | 60.5%#4 | 48.7%#39 |
| Passing success rate | 24.0%#137 | 36.0%#115 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.7%#41 | 15.4%#51 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2%#100 | 33.9%#53 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2%#87 | 27.9%#58 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.5%#66 | 48.9%#36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5%#112 | 36.4%#64 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.3%#21 | 41.3%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.6%#31 | 67.3%#101 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Navy schedule · UAB schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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