Matchup analysis
Our model projects Army 29, Navy 26 on a neutral field at MetLife Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Army wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Navy is 2-5 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.7 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+0.6 per game). Army is 5-2 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.3 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+13.2 per game).
Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Navy puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) against Navy's below-average defense (86th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Navy by 19 and Army by 26 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on CBS.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Navy / Army) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Navy -2.5 | 37.5 | -142 / +120 |
| DraftKings | Navy -2.5 | 37.5 | -142 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Army win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Army -3 | 54.7 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Navy -2.5 | 37.5 | 44% |
| Blended projection | Navy -1.5 | 40.3 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Army win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 44% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Army -3.2 · market Navy -2.5 · difference +5.7 pts (Army view)
- Total
- model 54.7 · market 37.5 · difference +17.2
Model margin is 5.7 pts more toward Army than the market.
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Navy vs Army: stat comparison
| Stat | Navy | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7#64 | 35.3#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.1#107 | 22.1#55 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#26 | 6.34#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14#104 | 6.49#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 312.9#3 | 337.0#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 114.9#135 | 73.1#137 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.9#37 | 156.3#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.6#114 | 217.1#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#19 | 0.29#9 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#112 | 0.43#126 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#61 | 1.14#123 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#34 | 0.43#4 |
| Stat | Navy | Army |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#6 | +0.24#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#107 | +0.21#131 |
| Success rate | 47.5%#26 | 49.4%#14 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.5%#64 | 44.5%#112 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#43 | 12.0%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#58 | 14.4%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#68 | 12.5%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#19 | 9.5%#7 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.46#38 | 4.76#24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90#78 | 3.59#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#108 | own 30#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#120 | own 26#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#85 | 64.7#80 |
| Stat | Navy | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.31#1 | +0.26#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#44 | +0.19#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#15 | +0.18#131 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#134 | +0.25#124 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.8%#8 | 51.8%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 33.3%#133 | 42.5%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.9%#6 | 11.4%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.5%#121 | 32.4%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3%#66 | 37.9%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#51 | 51.2%#14 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.1%#123 | 46.3%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.8%#10 | 74.1%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.9%#76 | 54.2%#43 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Navy schedule · Army schedule · all Week 15 projections
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