Week 15 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 29, 2026
Week 15 of the 2026 college football season has 1 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Navy at Army (3.2-point margin), the highest projected total is Navy at Army (54.7 points) and the lowest is Navy at Army (54.7). 0 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports ProMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- Sat, Dec 12, 3:00 PM ESTNeutral site
Navy26
Army29We project Army 29-26, a 3.2-point margin with 54.7 total points; Army wins 58% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesShort dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog vs reeling favShort dog · fav off loss · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game: Record 265 hits, 223 misses (54% hit rate) over 488 graded games · 2026: 11-13High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top thirdNo-pass-rush dog vs pass-soft fav2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 15 hits, 10 misses (60% hit rate) over 25 graded games (n=25; wk 5–7 8-4) · Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rankB. Woodson QB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 77) · 75%G. Nwawuihe RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 71) · 70%Our number
Army by 3.2
Total 54.7
DraftKings
Navy -2.5
Total 37.5
We're 5.7 points higher on Army than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Navy -2.5 · O/U 37.5 · ML -142 / +120 · Army 44% no-vig · model vs market +5.7 pts, +15 pct pts (Army view)
Army 58% · total 54.7Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.