Matchup analysis
Our model projects Navy 33, Temple 22 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Navy wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.8 points and 54.9 combined points.
Temple is 2-5 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 28 points per game (-2.3 per game). Navy is 2-5 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.7 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+0.6 per game).
Navy's below-average defense (86th) should limit Temple's below-average offense (104th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Temple's struggling defense (122nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Temple by 12 and Navy by 33 about 80% of the time.
Navy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Navy by about 8.7. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Temple vs Navy: stat comparison
| Stat | Temple | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#91 | 29.7#64 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#104 | 29.1#107 |
| Yards per play | 6.61#30 | 6.67#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.28#114 | 6.14#104 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.4#27 | 312.9#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.7#118 | 114.9#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#87 | 130.9#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.1#117 | 243.6#114 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#33 | 0.43#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#113 | 0.57#112 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#114 | 2.14#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#92 | 1.29#34 |
| Stat | Temple | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#35 | +0.27#6 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#126 | +0.11#107 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#65 | 47.5%#26 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6%#125 | 40.5%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#18 | 13.7%#43 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.3%#122 | 11.2%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 9.5%#138 | 14.0%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.4%#16 | 10.6%#19 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60#107 | 4.46#38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#118 | 3.90#78 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#123 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#91 | own 31#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1#130 | 64.1#85 |
| Stat | Temple | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#20 | +0.31#1 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#42 | +0.15#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#111 | -0.09#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#128 | +0.34#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.1%#50 | 51.8%#8 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#94 | 33.3%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#57 | 11.9%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#71 | 25.5%#121 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.9%#135 | 29.3%#66 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#59 | 43.8%#51 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.6%#135 | 45.1%#123 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.5%#116 | 75.8%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#86 | 60.9%#76 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Temple schedule · Navy schedule · all Week 10 projections
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