Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Navy 43.1, Towson 9.3 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Navy wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.8 points and 52.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Towson is 0-1, scoring 18 and allowing 21 points per game (-3 per game). Navy has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Towson plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Navy's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Navy by 11 and Navy by 56 about 80% of the time.
Navy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Navy by about 31.7. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Towson 15, Navy 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.8 points and the total by 4.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Towson / Navy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Navy -30.5 → Navy -31 | 52 → 50.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| Bovada | Navy -30.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Navy -30.5 → Navy -31.5 | 53.5 → 50.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Navy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Navy -34 | 52.3 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Navy -31 | 50.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Navy -31.5 | 51.4 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Navy win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Navy -33.8 · market Navy -31 · difference +2.8 pts (Navy view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 50.5 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Navy than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Towson 9.3, Navy 43.1 | Navy 99%right winner | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| New formula | Towson 11.5, Navy 40.5 | Navy 95%right winner | 2.0 | 5.0 |
Final: Towson 15, Navy 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Towson vs Navy: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Towson | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8 | 31.5#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1 | 25.0#69 |
| Yards per play | 6.01 | 6.75#19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 5.98#92 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.7 | 295.8#1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.5 | 126.1#131 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.2 | 155.8#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.1 | 221.0#73 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 0.69#14 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.00#74 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 2.08#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 0.69#3 |
| Stat | Towson | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.20#5 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.04#89 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 49.4%#8 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 39.8%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 14.2%#23 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 12.0%#60 |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 10.7%#116 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7% | 8.4%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.94 | 4.28#36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 4.13#100 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | own 32#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | own 28#24 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9 | 62.5#114 |
| Stat | Towson | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.21#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.17#22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.03#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.12#107 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3% | 52.4%#2 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 41.5%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 10.9%#1 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 33.7%#30 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5% | 29.1%#65 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1% | 52.8%#5 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.6%#71 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 37.4% | 73.6%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1% | 58.2%#54 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Towson schedule · Navy schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.