Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Air Force 30.6, Navy 25.7 at Falcon Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Air Force wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 56.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Navy is 1-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+5 per game). Air Force is 2-1, scoring 34 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+10.3 per game).
Navy's below-average offense (84th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets Air Force's below-average defense (98th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Navy puts up. Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense) meets Navy's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Air Force puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Navy by 18 and Air Force by 27 about 80% of the time.
Air Force gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Air Force by about 2.8. The game is on CBS.
Result: Navy 9, Air Force 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 33.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Navy / Air Force) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Air Force -2 → Air Force -2.75 | 48.25 → 45.25 | +124.5 / -146.5 |
| Bovada | Air Force -2.5 → Air Force -3 | 47 → 45 | +125 / -145 |
| DraftKings | Air Force -1.5 → Air Force -2.5 | 49.5 → 45.5 | +124 / -148 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Air Force win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Air Force -5 | 56.2 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Air Force -3 | 45.3 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Air Force -3 | 47.0 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Air Force win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Air Force -4.9 · market Air Force -2.75 · difference +2.2 pts (Air Force view)
- Total
- model 56.2 · market 45.25 · difference +11.0
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Air Force than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Navy 25.7, Air Force 30.6 | Air Force 63%right winner | 0.1 | 33.2 |
| New formula | Navy 26.3, Air Force 30.3 | Air Force 60%right winner | 1.0 | 33.5 |
Final: Navy 9, Air Force 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Navy vs Air Force: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Navy | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.7#72 | 34.0#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7#92 | 23.7#77 |
| Yards per play | 6.31#64 | 5.80#93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02#96 | 6.08#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 346.0#2 | 338.3#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 83.3#135 | 100.3#134 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.7#21 | 143.7#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.3#98 | 197.0#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#51 | 0.67#52 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#125 | 1.00#62 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33#10 | 1.67#91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#118 | 0.67#11 |
| Stat | Navy | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#40 | +0.20#24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#91 | -0.01#52 |
| Success rate | 47.2%#33 | 46.4%#38 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#64 | 38.7%#53 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#76 | 11.4%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#76 | 12.6%#90 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#57 | 14.4%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5%#94 | 8.2%#5 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.49#45 | 4.80#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58#54 | 4.42#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#114 | own 31#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#130 | own 32#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#47 | 75.7#7 |
| Stat | Navy | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.30#4 | +0.19#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#121 | +0.27#33 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#36 | +0.07#94 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22#113 | -0.10#22 |
| Rushing success rate | 59.9%#2 | 49.4%#31 |
| Passing success rate | 22.7%#137 | 41.7%#79 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.8%#15 | 8.8%#1 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.9%#109 | 27.6%#102 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#92 | 26.8%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.7%#55 | 51.1%#19 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.7%#119 | 37.8%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.4%#25 | 71.9%#33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.3%#54 | 57.4%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Navy schedule · Air Force schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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