Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Navy 27.5, Tulsa 21.3 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Navy wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 48.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Tulsa is 3-2, scoring 27.8 and allowing 21.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). Navy is 1-3, scoring 25.3 and allowing 22.8 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Expect Tulsa to find it hard going: Navy's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th) outranks Tulsa's below-average offense (97th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.9 points against an average defense). Navy's below-average offense (96th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) meets Tulsa's below-average defense (91st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Navy puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 16 and Navy by 29 about 80% of the time.
Navy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Navy by about 4.1. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Tulsa 26, Navy 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 11.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulsa / Navy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Navy -2.5 → Navy -3 | 49 → 47.5 | +120 / -142.5 |
| Bovada | Navy -2.5 → Navy -3 | 49.5 → 47.5 | +110 / -130 |
| DraftKings | Navy -2.5 → Navy -3 | 48.5 → 47.5 | +130 / -155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Navy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Navy -6 | 48.7 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Navy -3 | 47.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Navy -3.5 | 48.6 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Navy win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Navy -6.2 · market Navy -3 · difference +3.2 pts (Navy view)
- Total
- model 48.7 · market 47.5 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Navy than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulsa 21.3, Navy 27.5 | Navy 66%right winner | 1.8 | 11.3 |
| New formula | Tulsa 22.1, Navy 27.0 | Navy 63%right winner | 3.1 | 10.9 |
Final: Tulsa 26, Navy 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulsa vs Navy: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Tulsa | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#76 | 25.3#92 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2#52 | 22.8#62 |
| Yards per play | 5.32#117 | 6.12#70 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.43#65 | 5.41#64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.2#59 | 288.5#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 170.2#116 | 95.8#136 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.0#67 | 127.8#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 262.0#127 | 197.0#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40#19 | 0.50#36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.60#12 | 0.75#94 |
| Sacks per game | 2.60#34 | 2.50#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#51 | 2.25#99 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#86 | +0.15#44 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#25 | +0.01#57 |
| Success rate | 39.1%#114 | 45.2%#47 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.9%#51 | 37.5%#34 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6%#130 | 12.5%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#34 | 10.8%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#106 | 15.3%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#93 | 13.4%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.15#65 | 4.25#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.41#32 | 3.52#45 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#49 | own 27#124 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#38 | own 33#127 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.2#65 | 62.8#97 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#11 | +0.24#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09#120 | -0.05#114 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#6 | -0.12#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#66 | +0.18#106 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8%#93 | 54.5%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 36.5%#118 | 25.4%#136 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.7%#15 | 12.8%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 19.0%#138 | 24.5%#124 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8%#103 | 29.3%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0%#138 | 36.7%#101 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#79 | 49.1%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.9%#12 | 68.8%#45 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.6%#27 | 57.5%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulsa schedule · Navy schedule · all Week 6 projections
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